Gao B Ge In-Depth Analysis: Why Is FIL Decentralized Storage Continually Dropping?

Bro Gao has recently been paying attention to the trend of FIL. It’s worth discussing this topic thoroughly. Decentralized storage is clearly a major direction, and FIL as a leading project has solid technology. But why does its price keep falling? The logic behind this is much more complex than it appears on the surface. Today, Bro Gao will analyze this issue from multiple perspectives, including supply and demand, market conditions, and policy environment.

The Fundamental Contradiction in FIL’s Price Dilemma: Imbalance Between Selling Pressure and Demand

First, the most practical issue: the core reason for FIL’s decline is not technology, but economic models and market demand.

Unabsorbed Selling Pressure

FIL miners use a 180-day unlock mechanism, but electricity costs and hardware maintenance expenses are incurred daily. This means that once tokens are unlocked, most miners will choose to sell immediately to cover costs. Over time, this creates continuous and substantial selling pressure. According to the latest data, FIL’s current price is $0.94, with a 24-hour change of -9.51%, and a circulating market cap of only $706.17 million. Such a market cap cannot support the large volume of unlock sales from miners.

More problematic is that the destruction part of FIL’s inflation mechanism is far below the new issuance, resulting in a long-term surplus of supply in the network. Without corresponding demand, this selling pressure can only push prices down.

Actual Storage Demand Is Still Not Triggered

Many people see the total storage capacity of FIL’s network and assume the market is mature, but Bro Gao must point out: most of this storage capacity is fake data generated by miners to increase earnings. Genuine storage demand from enterprise users and individuals remains minimal to this day.

Currently, traditional centralized cloud storage still has advantages in cost, access speed, and user experience. Without a strong real-world need, FIL cannot sustain continuous buying support. This is a typical example of oversupply on the supply side and relatively weak demand.

Halving Outlook: Opportunities and Challenges

Regarding FIL’s halving this year, Bro Gao’s conclusion is straightforward: long-term positive, short-term uncertain.

Halving will directly cut block rewards in half, reducing daily issuance by 50%. This means less new supply and a significant decrease in inflation rate, which is a real benefit from the supply side. But why hasn’t the market started to speculate in advance? Bro Gao’s analysis is:

Three Constraints on the Halving Effect

First, expectations of halving are usually priced in early. Currently, the market is in a wait-and-see and bottoming-out phase, with investors awaiting more positive signals. Second, halving can only reduce future new issuance but cannot absorb the historical issuance that has already been unlocked or is about to be unlocked. Existing selling pressure still exists, and the effect of reduced new issuance takes time to manifest. Third, simply reducing supply does not automatically push prices higher; genuine demand growth is the fundamental factor.

Where Is the True Turning Point?

Bro Gao believes that for FIL to truly break out, three conditions must be met simultaneously: the halving mechanism is implemented, the overall market enters a bull phase, and real storage application data explodes. Currently, these three conditions are still in development, so now is not the time to go all-in.

Chip Storage vs. Decentralized Storage: Clarifying the Concept

Finally, Bro Gao emphasizes an easily confused concept: many people associate FIL with chip storage and hype it together, but these are fundamentally two different fields.

The Fundamental Difference Between Hardware and Protocols

Chip storage refers to physical hardware like hard drives, flash memory, and storage chips, which are responsible for storing data physically. FIL, representing decentralized storage, is a network protocol layer solution that connects distributed hard drives worldwide to enable data sharding, tamper resistance, and token incentives.

The relationship between the two is complementary, not competitive. Hardware provides the underlying infrastructure, while decentralized storage leverages these resources to build the network. The idea that “chip storage benefits FIL” usually refers to specialized chips improving mining efficiency. Its impact on the price is minimal—just listen and don’t get caught up in hype.

Bro Gao’s Final Advice: Rationally View the Future of FIL

Bro Gao’s final view is: decentralized storage is indeed a long-term correct direction, and FIL is a leading project in this space. But current issues—massive selling pressure, lack of demand, slow implementation—are very real and cannot be ignored.

Halving is an important turning point, but don’t expect it to reverse the situation overnight. The hype around chip storage is mostly conceptual and can mislead investors. From a trading perspective, focus on actual changes in supply, demand, and capital flow; from an investment perspective, pay attention to real application deployment and data growth.

FIL has a future, but the road will not be easy. Bro Gao’s advice is to stay rational, but also not to completely give up on this track. Opportunities often emerge when least expected.