After the US-Iran conflict, the truly benefiting entities should be stocks and funds of Western oil companies like lof, rather than commodity funds.

PortfolioAlert · 2026-02-28T08:34:08+00:00

The impact of the US-Iran conflict on the oil market is mainly reflected in the Oil LOF Fund. This fund is based on US oil company stocks and benefits from different conflict outcomes: if Iran compromises and peace is achieved, the Oil LOF rises; if the US continues to exert pressure and the Iranian regime collapses, US oil companies profit, and the Oil LOF increases again; if the conflict persists, oil prices rise, and the Oil LOF benefits the most.

PortfolioAlert

2026-02-28 08:34:08

Abstract generation in progress

Regardless of whether the US-Iran conflict escalates into war, the Oil LOF (162719) is the fund that ultimately benefits from the US-Iran conflict. Unlike crude oil LOFs, the underlying assets of the Oil LOF are stocks of American oil companies, currently with almost no premium. The possible outcomes of the US-Iran conflict are as follows:

First, to maintain control, the Iranian regime is likely to surrender and concede oil interests to the US (as reported, Iran is preparing to give up economic benefits in exchange for avoiding conflict). The final result would be a drop in crude oil prices, an increase in US oil company stocks, a decline in premiums of other crude oil LOFs, and an increase in the Oil LOF.

Second, the US aims to overthrow the Iranian clerical regime and continue military action, similar to Iraq, Libya, and Venezuela, leading to the collapse of the clerical regime. The new government would cooperate deeply with the West, with US oil companies controlling Iranian oil. Oil company stocks and the Oil LOF would rise. After the premium on crude oil funds is eliminated, the gains or losses will depend on oil prices.

Third, if the conflict lasts longer, crude oil prices will surge, causing all oil-related funds to rise, including the Oil LOF. Since there is no premium, the post-war benefits will be greater, and the Oil LOF will ultimately see the largest increase.

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