XRP is stuck in a valley: why three weeks of inflows haven't saved the price from falling

Over the past three weeks, the XRP price has shown a stark contrast between external positivity and internal weakness. Ripple-based ETF funds continue to record capital inflows, but the pace of these inflows is rapidly slowing down. At the same time, technical signals and blockchain data indicate that the altcoin is on the verge of a more serious decline. With the current price at $1.31 and a 7.63% drop in 24 hours, the situation requires careful analysis of the hidden reasons for stagnation.

ETF Capital Flows: Illusion of Growth or Real Support?

For three consecutive weeks, XRP ETF funds have registered positive inflows, but the picture is much less rosy than it appears at first glance. In early February, weekly inflows reached $36 million. By the end of the third week, this figure had fallen to nearly $1.84 million — a decline of over 95% in three weeks. This dynamic clearly demonstrates that institutional confidence is quickly waning.

Money flows into ETFs serve as a barometer of institutional interest. When flows grow, it signals increased demand. However, decreasing inflows, even if still positive, clearly indicate a weakening conviction among major players. This slowdown creates a dangerous situation where the appearance of stability masks growing vulnerability.

Technical Bounce Without Strength: Bearish Divergence and VWAP Loss

XRP fell below its weekly volume-weighted average price (VWAP) on February 18 and has not recovered this critical level since. When the price drops below VWAP, it means that institutional investors are, on average, holding unprofitable positions, naturally reducing their willingness to make new purchases.

Between February 6 and 20, a bearish divergence formed — a dangerous technical signal. XRP made a lower high, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) showed a higher high. This desynchronization indicates weakening upward momentum and a potential continuation of the bearish trend, especially if the price breaks below $1.379.

On-Chain Data: Buyers Weakening Amid Growing Pressure

Blockchain data tell an important story about what’s happening under the market hood. The volume of coins withdrawn from exchanges is a key indicator of demand — withdrawals usually signify intent to hold, and their reduction indicates weakening buying pressure. Three weeks ago, withdrawals reached 71.32 million XRP tokens. Currently, they have fallen to 41.69 million, a decrease of about 41%.

However, there is a conflicting signal. The Money Flow Index (MFI) shows that capital inflows into the asset are continuing. Despite the price decline in the early third week, the MFI kept rising, indicating that smart buyers are slowly accumulating coins at lows. This hidden accumulation explains why XRP did not fall sharply after losing VWAP support — small purchases at the bottom continue to absorb selling pressure.

Critical Price Levels: From $1.259 to Stability

Analysis of the acquisition price reveals a key support zone around $1.26, where over 159 million XRP from previous buyers have accumulated. As long as this level holds, the decline can be limited to about 12%, even if the current resistance of $1.35–$1.37 is broken.

However, a break below $1.259 would be a serious warning. In that case, the market could be exposed to more significant sell-offs, with subsequent support targets at $1.162 and $1.024. On the positive side, recovery would require consolidation above $1.439, and a full reversal of the bearish trend would only occur if the price breaks above $1.670.

Final Assessment: Three Weeks of Inflows Mask Deeper Weakness

The picture becomes clear: three weeks of capital inflows into ETFs mask a deeper weakness in the XRP market. Funds continue to receive money, but the pace is clearly slowing. Technical indicators, including bearish divergence and VWAP loss, warn of the possibility of further decline. At the same time, on-chain data show that while smart money is still accumulating, overall buying pressure is weakening.

At the current price of $1.31, located between support and resistance, the $1.259 level becomes a decisive line. If the price stays above this mark amid continued ETF inflows, those three weeks of injections could indeed prevent a deeper fall. However, if a breakdown occurs, the market could quickly shift focus to lower target levels.