Peter Brandt's XRP Technical Breakdown: Why This Support Break Matters

XRP is flashing warning signals that have seasoned technical analysts watching closely. The recent breakdown below a long-term support level has sparked renewed debate about where Ripple price might head next. The question circulating through the trader community feels increasingly urgent: could XRP really test levels below $1 before any substantial recovery takes hold? This technical unraveling connects directly to the work of peter brandt, whose track record of identifying major XRP downside moves continues to shape how chart watchers evaluate current risk.

The Double Top Pattern: Peter Brandt’s Structural Warning

Peter brandt flagged a potential double top formation on XRP around mid-December 2025. This classic reversal pattern occurs when price tests a peak twice, then fails to push higher. Once the middle low breaks as support, the technical structure typically points to further downside. What made brandt’s observation particularly relevant is that XRP was trading significantly higher when he shared the analysis. The breakdown that followed transformed the pattern from theoretical warning into active price deterioration. The subsequent moves confirmed the structural weakness brandt had identified.

This is not about prediction drama—it’s about structure and risk management. When a double top completes, the chart often punishes traders holding too aggressively. XRP’s breakdown created precisely that dynamic. Major liquidation events accelerated the selling pressure, though brandt treated any temporary bounces as strength inside a larger bearish framework rather than early signs of recovery.

The 100-Week Moving Average: XRP’s Critical Trend Line and Historical Warnings

Peter brandt and other analysts emphasize a critical level: the 100-week moving average. This orange line has historically separated bull market resilience from bear market weakness across multiple XRP cycles. XRP’s recent break below this key moving average is triggering historical comparisons that matter.

Consider April 2022. XRP broke below the same 100-week moving average during that bear cycle, and price subsequently fell roughly 50% from the breakdown area before finding a cycle bottom. During that period, XRP dropped from approximately $0.67 to roughly $0.32. Applying that same 50% drawdown framework to today’s breakdown point would position XRP substantially below $1.

Current XRP price sits at $1.35 with a 24-hour decline of -3.97%, still above the sub-$1 targets discussed by analysts. However, if the historical analog holds, additional downside toward $0.86 to $0.90 would represent a plausible target zone—not a guaranteed outcome, but a scenario grounded in historical precedent and technical structure.

Target Zones Below $1: What Historical Analogs Reveal About XRP’s Potential

Multiple analysts now align on a sub-$1 price zone as a potential critical support area. Trading perspectives differ slightly, but the clustering of interest around $0.75 to $0.90 has become notable. Within that range, $0.85 to $0.86 stands out as a level that fits both peter brandt’s moving average framework and other technical analysts’ projections.

This isn’t about celebrating downside—it’s about acknowledging what technical structure suggests. If the bearish scenario unfolds, the working range between $0.75 and $0.90 represents where institutional and retail traders might find support emerging. That’s also where longer-term value hunters typically become active.

Macro Headwinds and Liquidation Waves: The Triggers Behind XRP’s Weakness

The technical breakdown doesn’t exist in a vacuum. Escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly involving Iran and the United States, create macro uncertainty. Tariff disputes linked to trade policy rhetoric add another layer of pressure. These factors have historically triggered forced selling waves across cryptocurrency markets, including cascading liquidations that accelerate downside moves beyond purely technical levels.

Peter brandt and other chart watchers recognize that liquidation cascades can compress price moves faster than traditional support levels might suggest. What begins as a technical breakdown can accelerate into a liquidation event—precisely what happened in recent XRP movement.

The Path to Recovery: When Liquidity Cycles Could Shift the Outlook

Despite the bearish setup, the analysis doesn’t stop at downside targets. Federal Reserve rate cuts and a renewal of broader market liquidity could eventually support a slower recovery phase for XRP after a deep washout. The historical argument suggests that liquidity cycles have influenced risk assets through multiple market regimes. If macro conditions shift and forced selling exhausts itself, the same technical levels that now represent danger could transform into support.

Timing remains uncertain, and this scenario depends on macro conditions cooperating. But peter brandt’s framework—and the broader technical structure—suggests that major reversals often require cleansing capitulation first. For XRP, that might mean testing the sub-$1 zone before any meaningful recovery takes root.