Goldman Sachs data shows that Strategy (MSTR) under Michael Saylor has a 14% short position as a proportion of its market capitalization, making it the largest publicly traded stock with the highest short interest globally. This figure far exceeds the 2-5% level typical of ordinary large-cap stocks and marks extreme market disagreement with the company's "Bitcoin accumulation strategy." The immediate trigger for the short-selling wave was Bitcoin's price halving from $126,000 to $62,000, resulting in an unrealized loss of approximately $7 billion on the 717,000 BTC held by Strategy. The stock price has fallen over 80% from its all-time high, and the net asset value multiple has dropped to 1.09x (approaching the discount zone), with the market no longer willing to pay a premium for the "HODL strategy." The short thesis is based on three judgments: Bitcoin may continue to decline to $50,000-$55,000 or even lower, expanding the company's unrealized losses; the vulnerability of $8.2 billion in debt leverage may ultimately force the company to sell Bitcoin; and the decoupling of stock price from asset value could cut off financing channels, creating a vicious cycle. However, the bulls' defense is also clear: the company holds $2.25 billion in cash reserves, enough to pay dividends for over 30 months without using any Bitcoin; all Bitcoin assets are uncollateralized, with no forced liquidation risk; the first major debt maturity is in September 2027, providing a 19-month buffer; CEO Phong Le has explicitly stated that Bitcoin would need to fall to $8,000 and remain at that level for five to six years before debt repayment becomes difficult. The 14% short position is both a collective declaration of war by global shorts and a potential setup for a short squeeze—if Bitcoin rebounds or the company receives positive catalysts, the high short interest could trigger a chain reaction of forced liquidations. This showdown is essentially a stress test of the market's attitude toward the extreme strategy of "Bitcoin corporate reserves": the winner will reap substantial rewards, while the loser will serve as the harshest lesson of the cycle.

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