Why growth, power, and productivity will define Nigeria’s century of plenty

The book A Century of Plenty opens with a bold question:

Can every person on Earth enjoy at least the living standards of a modern Switzerland by 2100?

It is an audacious question. But it forces clarity. Progress is not accidental. Prosperity is not magic. Growth is engineered.

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Reading that question, I asked myself a Nigerian version:

Can Nigeria achieve $14,554 – the current average global nominal GDP per capita in the next century?

At first glance, the question feels detached from current realities. Nigeria’s GDP per capita sits below $2,000.

We face currency devaluation and volatility, fiscal and monetary pressure, energy and infrastructure constraints, insecurity, structural unemployment and economic inactivity.

But the more important question for investors, policymakers, and business leaders is not whether the target feels distant. It is whether the mechanics of getting there are understood.

The book A Century of Plenty asks whether every person on Earth can enjoy at least the living standards of a modern Switzerland by 2100. The answer for Nigeria is No. Its conclusion is not utopian; it is structural.

Growth happens when four engines align: Economic productivity, Human capital and innovation, Urbanisation and integration, and Energy and infrastructure expansion – the Progress Machine!

That framework is not abstract theory to me. It mirrors my own family’s trajectory and Nigeria’s unfinished story.

My Family Progress Machine – From Creek Trade to Global Economy

A century ago, my grandparents traded along the Niger Delta and the Gulf of Guinea. Commerce connected communities. Markets created scale. Integration generated opportunity.

Then, in the early 1950s, oil was discovered in commercial quantities in Olobiri. That discovery plugged Nigeria into the global energy economy. Energy investment created infrastructure. Infrastructure created jobs.

My father, without a university degree but with strong work ethics, discipline and knowledge of the terrain, was recruited into early oil exploration.

The income he earned funded education, among other things. Education changed the generational trajectory. I went on to receive a university education in the United Kingdom and worked in highly reputable institutions at the core of the British economy.

That arc–trade, energy, education, exposure – is the progress machine in action. Nigeria has activated pieces of it before. The problem is that we never sustained it.

Nigeria’s Growth Stagnation in Numbers

From a number lens, the data tells a sobering story:

• GDP per capita has declined from roughly $3,200 in 2014 to under $2,000
• Usable electricity generation remains below 5,000 MW for over 200 million
• Over 130 million Nigerians live in multidimensional
• More than 40% of workers operate in low–productivity informal

The economy has expanded nominally at times, but not consistently in real, productivity–driven terms. Population growth has outpaced income growth. That is a structural imbalance.

Redistribution debates dominate headlines – trade subsidies, transfers, FX interventions – but the harder question is avoided: how do we expand output per person at scale?

No country has redistributed itself into prosperity. Every country that has sustained poverty reduction has done so through productivity growth – this is the same for China, Singapore, Malaysia, India, etc.

Energy: The Capital Base of Development

For investors and business operators, energy is not philosophical; it is operational. Nigeria’s sub–5,000 MW capacity is not just a statistic. It is embedded in:

Manufacturing margins, SME cost structures, Healthcare delivery, Data centre viability, Foreign direct investment appetite.

South Africa produces over 50,000 MW. China produces more than 2 million MW. Energy abundance correlates directly with industrial depth.

The transition to cleaner energy is necessary. But energy poverty is not a climate strategy – it is a development constraint. Gas, solar, grid reform, and distributed systems – these are not policy luxuries or nice to have. They are balance sheet fundamentals for national productivity.

Human Capital: The Multiplier Effect

Education transformed my family’s prospects. But beyond the personal story, the macro lesson is clear: human capital multiplies infrastructure investment.

When educational attainment rises and knowledge diffuses, productivity accelerates. Innovation becomes commercially viable. Urban centres become value clusters rather than congestion points.

Nigeria’s median age is under 19. Demographics can be an asset, but only when labour productivity rises faster than population growth.

Otherwise, scale amplifies fragility.

Urbanisation and Market Integration

Cities concentrate productivity. Lagos, Aba, Abuja, Port Harcourt, Kano – these are not just population centres; they are potential economic accelerators.

But infrastructure deficits, logistics bottlenecks, regulatory inconsistency and policy uncertainty suppress scale advantages.

Integration within ECOWAS, across African markets, and globally lowers transaction costs and raises opportunities.

Nigeria’s domestic market is large, but growth requires connectivity beyond borders and affordability.

Belief as an Economic Variable

Markets respond to confidence. Investors respond to predictability. Entrepreneurs respond to credible signals.

Perhaps the most underappreciated constraint in Nigeria is psychological. Cynicism has become fashionable – this is something we must be vigilant about, especially during the electioneering period. But belief in growth is not sentimentality; it is a precondition for long–term capital allocation.

Countries that commit visibly and consistently to productivity – power expansion, infrastructure build–out, regulatory reform–attract investment. Those that oscillate repel it.

The Structural Question

Can Nigeria reach $14,554 per capita in the next century?

To do so, Nigeria would need sustained multi–decade productivity growth, energy expansion, educational upgrading and institutional stability. That requires:

• Treating power, ports, technology, data and AI as core economic infrastructure
• Prioritising investment before redistribution
• Rewarding value creation over rent–seeking
• Ensuring policy consistency beyond political cycles

The arithmetic is demanding but not impossible. Global GDP per capita expanded sixfold over the last century. Structural transformation at scale has precedent.

The real constraint is not mathematics. It is commitment.

Growth Is the Choice

A century ago, my grandparents traded across waterways. Seventy years ago, energy expansion created an opportunity for my father. Education carried me across continents. That is the progress machine.

Nigeria stands at a strategic inflection point by the end of this century. We can continue managing scarcity or we can rebuild the machinery of abundance.

For investors, policymakers, and business leaders reading this: growth is not optional. It is the only path to sustainable returns, stable markets, generational mobility and prosperity.

A century of plenty is not guaranteed but possible for Nigeria. It is engineered. Growth is the choice!

About the Author

Abel Aboh is a UK-based Data and AI Leader and a governance board member of The Data Lab Scotland.

• He serves on the Nominations Committee and the Technology Law and Practice Committee of the Law Society of Scotland.
• With over two decades of experience in data management, technology, human resources, and governance, Abel advises UK critical institutions and organisations on data, AI, innovation, technology, and transformation. He regularly writes for NairaMetrics.
• He was a finalist for British Data Leader of the Year 2021 and was inducted into the UK Data Leader Hall of Fame 2024.

A proud Nigerian from the Niger Delta, Abel is passionate about inclusive leadership, data, AI, education, finance, technology, trade, and empowering the next generation of African innovators and change-makers.