#马年开工第一帖 Market Fluctuations Under Quantum Threat: Bitcoin Faces the Most Intense Institutional Sell-Off in History

The Bitcoin market is experiencing an unprecedented wave of institutional selling. Recent data shows that its net institutional buying rate has plummeted to -319%, setting the record for the most severe capital outflow ever.

This abnormal phenomenon is far from a simple market cycle correction; it points to a deeper structural anxiety: the threat of quantum computing to Bitcoin’s cryptographic system is reshaping investors’ long-term valuation models.

1. Quantum Discount: Reassessing Fair Value Amid Consensus Cracks
According to research by Capriole Investments, the market is already pricing in this potential survival threat due to the possibility that future quantum computers could crack Bitcoin’s encryption algorithms (the “Q Day” risk). Analysis indicates that Bitcoin’s current fair value is subjected to approximately a 20% “quantum discount.”

This means investors believe its long-term value should be lowered due to the potential black swan technological risk. If the Bitcoin network fails to upgrade to quantum-resistant encryption standards in time, this discount rate could expand to 60% by 2028.

2. Fatal Weakness: Old Wallets and the “Honeypot” Effect
The quantum threat does not affect all Bitcoins equally. Early “P2P K” addresses (public keys exposed directly on the blockchain) holding Bitcoin are particularly vulnerable, including about 1.1 million Bitcoins in Satoshi’s wallet (worth around $100 billion) and assets accounting for roughly 25% of the circulating supply.

These wallets act like giant “honeypots.” Once quantum computers mature enough to crack private keys within the few-minute window of transaction confirmation, they could be directly stolen and dumped onto the market, triggering devastating sell-offs.

3. Institutional Logic: Avoiding “Technical Seizure Risk”
The withdrawal by institutional investors reflects their rational avoidance of “technical seizure risk.” The quantum threat undermines Bitcoin’s core narrative as a “hard currency”—the code-ensured absolute ownership.

In a high-interest-rate environment, holding interest-free Bitcoin, which faces potential systemic risks, has a significantly higher opportunity cost compared to traditional assets like U.S. Treasuries.

Therefore, even if Bitcoin’s recent price rebound due to overselling appears technical, institutions continue to reduce holdings, essentially hedging against the potential for quantum risks to wipe out the asset’s value.

4. Countdown to Survival: The Race Between Upgrade Windows and Market Patience
Although current quantum computers do not yet possess practical attack capabilities (requiring 3,000-6,000 logical qubits, with only single-digit levels achieved so far), uncertainty itself is a risk.

Upgrading the Bitcoin network to quantum-resistant cryptography (PQC) is expected to take 2 to 3 years for code updates, testing, and consensus migration.

However, “Q Day” could occur within the next 5-10 years (about a 60% probability before 2030), and the window for Bitcoin’s upgrade is narrowing. If network upgrades lag behind breakthroughs in quantum computing, market confidence could collapse before a technical attack even occurs.

Insight: Risk Pricing in Paradigm Shifts
This sell-off reveals a paradigm shift: Bitcoin’s valuation framework has moved from a simple macro asset rotation to a multi-dimensional model that includes technological survival risks. When “quantum discount” becomes a core part of pricing, short-term volatility recedes, and long-term survivability becomes the focus.

For Bitcoin to regain institutional confidence, it must not only withstand shocks from U.S. Treasury yields and ETF capital outflows but also demonstrate its network’s ability to evolve collaboratively and resist existential threats in this race against quantum computing.

The market is voting: in an era approaching a technological singularity, can the oldest cryptocurrency complete its most challenging upgrade?