How The Story Is Shifting For Booking Holdings (BKNG) On AI Spending And Valuation Multiples

Simply Wall St

Mon, February 23, 2026 at 10:10 AM GMT+9 4 min read

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Booking Holdings’ fair value estimate has been revised slightly lower, from US$6,208.92 to US$5,873.61, reflecting a more cautious price target in the latest analyst model. This shift lines up with mixed research commentary, where strong Q4 execution and demand are being weighed against questions around margins, AI spend, and sector multiples. As you read on, you will see how these moving pieces are shaping the current story around Booking and what to watch as the narrative evolves.

Analyst Price Targets don’t always capture the full story. Head over to our Company Report to find new ways to value Booking Holdings.

What Wall Street Has Been Saying

🐂 Bullish Takeaways

Several firms, including Susquehanna, HSBC and BMO, highlight solid Q4 execution, with Susquehanna lifting its price target to US$6,500 and HSBC edging its target up to US$7,746 while calling Booking an undervalued global leader.

Multiple analysts point to strong Q4 room nights, bookings and EBITDA versus prior estimates. BMO cites bookings and adjusted EBITDA that were 3% and 4% ahead of Street numbers, and TD Cowen references higher margins.

Oppenheimer and BofA see potential benefits from AI over time, including better conversion, service margins and advertising leverage. Oppenheimer describes current valuations as reflecting an AI disruption overhang it views as overstated.

🐻 Bearish Takeaways

Cantor Fitzgerald and Barclays flag AI related uncertainty and sector multiple pressure, with Cantor cutting its target to US$4,495 and Barclays trimming to US$5,500 and suggesting it may be hard for the shares to work in the near term.

Piper Sandler, Cantor Fitzgerald and Bernstein point to mixed sentiment around online travel and AI. Piper keeps a Neutral stance, Cantor cites possible pressure on near to medium term multiples and Bernstein emphasizes that AI questions remain central for OTAs.

Do your thoughts align with the Bull or Bear Analysts? Perhaps you think there’s more to the story. Head to the Simply Wall St Community to discover more perspectives!

NasdaqGS:BKNG 1-Year Stock Price Chart

We’ve flagged 1 risk for Booking Holdings. See which could impact your investment.

What’s in the News

Booking.com is named the Official Travel Partner of the Route 66 Centennial, with visibility across digital platforms and at key events as the highway approaches its 100th anniversary in 2026.

Booking.com is promoting thousands of accommodation options and car rentals along Route 66, tying the partnership to its 2026 Travel Predictions that highlight strong traveler interest in road trips and local experiences.

KAYAK for Business launches Events, a tool that lets companies set travel policies, invite up to 10,000 attendees, and track event travel bookings and compliance in one place.

Navan and viagogo both expand ties with Booking.com, giving business travelers broader lodging access and letting event ticket buyers add hotels, flights, rental cars, and local attractions in a single flow.

 






Story Continues  

How This Changes the Fair Value For Booking Holdings

Fair value trimmed from US$6,208.92 to US$5,873.61.

Revenue growth assumption adjusted from 8.85% to 9.18%.

Net profit margin assumption moved from 30.13% to 29.42%.

Future P/E multiple revised from 23.56x to 21.17x.

Discount rate nudged from 8.57% to 8.60%.

Never Miss an Update: Follow The Narrative

Narratives connect a company’s business story to a set of financial assumptions, so you can see how product moves, competition, and risks flow through to revenue, earnings, and fair value estimates. They refresh as new data and research arrive, keeping the thesis current rather than static.

Head over to the Simply Wall St Community and follow the Narrative on Booking Holdings to stay up to date on:

How Booking’s use of AI, the Connected Trip vision, and partnerships with groups like Uber aim to improve customer conversion, supplier relationships, and long term margin potential.

The role of alternative accommodations, the Genius loyalty program, and growth in flights and attractions as additional drivers of customer retention and new revenue streams.

Key risks such as geopolitics, softer travel to the U.S., more cautious consumer spending, and rising customer acquisition costs that could pressure revenue visibility and margins.

_ This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned._

Companies discussed in this article include BKNG.

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