Why the Medtronic (MDT) ‘Inflection Trade’ is Back On

For more than three years, Medtronic MDT -1.89% ▼ has barely made any progress. Since 2022, the stock has been trapped in a wide $70-$100 trading range, frustrating investors who once viewed the company as a reliable, defensive compounder within large-cap medtech. What was supposed to be a steady growth story instead turned into a period of stalled revenue, uneven execution, and mounting competitive pressure — while peers like Boston Scientific BSX +1.05% ▲ and Stryker SYK -0.88% ▼ consistently pulled ahead.

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Now, something different appears to be taking shape. Rather than betting the turnaround on a single breakthrough product cycle, Medtronic is launching multiple new platforms across several multi-billion-dollar markets simultaneously. It’s a rare kind of “multi-product supercycle,” one that could finally reaccelerate growth, restore investor confidence, and move a stock that has been stuck in neutral for years. I’m stoutly bullish on MDT.

A Convergence of Launches in Billion-Dollar Markets

Medtronic is in the early innings of several major product rollouts across electrophysiology, hypertension, robotics, neuromodulation, and vascular intervention. Individually, each addressable market is meaningful. Collectively, they represent one of the broadest product refresh cycles the company has seen in years.

In electrophysiology, Medtronic’s pulsed field ablation platform — particularly Affera — is gaining traction in an estimated $13 billion global market. Pulsed field ablation is widely viewed as the next-generation approach to atrial fibrillation treatment, and share capture in this segment could materially alter Medtronic’s cardiovascular trajectory.

In hypertension, the Symplicity Spyral renal denervation system received Medicare’s final National Coverage Determination in late 2025. Even under conservative assumptions, the U.S. total addressable market could approach $6 billion, given the large population of patients with uncontrolled resistant hypertension. Coverage clarity removes a major overhang on commercialization.

Meanwhile, in robotics, Medtronic’s Hugo platform received FDA approval for urological surgery, allowing entry into the roughly $7 billion U.S. soft-tissue robotics market. Robotics remains one of the fastest-growing segments in medtech, and Hugo provides Medtronic with a competitive foothold against entrenched players.

Beyond those headline programs, additional launches such as the AltaViva tibial nerve stimulation device, Liberant thrombectomy system, and Neuroguard carotid stent broaden the growth base. None can individually transform the company. Together, they create cumulative momentum.

The key is aggregation. Even modest adoption across these launches could add more than one percentage point to overall organic revenue growth over time — a meaningful shift for a company of Medtronic’s scale.

Why This Cycle Is Different

Medtronic has introduced new products before — but what makes this cycle different is the timing and the overlap. Several major growth drivers are moving into commercialization within a tight window, creating the potential for sustained, sequential acceleration rather than one-off revenue bumps. If platforms like Symplicity Spyral, Hugo, and pulsed field ablation scale in parallel, Medtronic’s growth trajectory could look meaningfully different over the next two fiscal years.

Just as important, these launches are concentrated in faster-growing, higher-margin segments of the business. That shift matters not only for top-line momentum, but for mix and profitability. As the portfolio leans further into cardiovascular innovation, surgical robotics, and neuromodulation, operating leverage becomes far more attainable.

The real question isn’t whether Medtronic can grow again. It’s whether it can grow fast enough — and consistently enough — to reset investor expectations and change the stock’s long-stalled narrative.

Governance Pressure Could Reinforce Execution

Execution has long been Medtronic’s weak point — and that may finally be shifting. Activist pressure from Elliott Management has driven meaningful governance changes, including the addition of new board members and the creation of dedicated Growth and Operating Committees. While activism alone doesn’t ensure results, it often brings sharper discipline around capital allocation, portfolio focus, and margin accountability.

At the same time, Medtronic is moving ahead with the planned separation of its Diabetes (MiniMed) business, targeted for completion by the end of 2026. The spin simplifies the portfolio, has the potential to be EPS accretive, and opens the door to further portfolio streamlining or increased tuck-in acquisitions in faster-growing segments.

Recent deals like CathWorks point to a strategic shift toward targeted, higher-margin growth assets rather than scale-for-scale ’s-sake acquisitions. Over time, a series of these focused moves could steadily lift Medtronic’s organic growth profile and improve execution across the business.

MDT’s Intriguing Valuation Multiple

Despite this improving setup, Medtronic trades at a discount of around 18% to large-cap peers. On earnings, the stock looks modestly discounted versus peers and its own history, with a non-GAAP P/E around 17.5x, below the sector median of 18.5x and its five-year average.

On a forward basis, P/E tells a similar story, pricing MDT at roughly a 4–7% discount to both the sector and its historical norm. On an enterprise value basis, MDT actually trades above sector medians, with EV/Sales just over 4x versus about 3.6–3.7x for peers, though still slightly below its own five-year average.

If organic growth accelerates toward the mid-to-high single digits and operating margin expansion follows, even modest multiple re-rating could amplify returns. Conversely, if launches underwhelm or commercialization stumbles, the discount is likely to persist.

Is Medtronic a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

According to Wall Street analysts tracked by TipRanks, Medtronic carries a Moderate Buy consensus rating, with 12 Buy, 7 Hold, and no Sell recommendations. The average 12-month price target stands at approximately $112.93, implying ~16% upside over the coming 12 months.

A Structural Reset, Not a Short-Term Bounce

Medtronic’s stagnation since 2022 has been frustrating. But the setup today is materially different from what it was years ago. The company is no longer dependent on incremental improvements within legacy franchises. Instead, it is launching multiple platforms across some of the most attractive segments of the medical devices market. That convergence creates the possibility of a rare multi-product supercycle — one capable of lifting organic growth meaningfully higher.

Execution remains the swing factor. Commercial uptake, physician adoption, and competitive positioning will determine whether this pipeline translates into sustained acceleration. But the ingredients for a comeback are in place.

I remain bullish on Medtronic. If management capitalizes on this overlapping product cycle and governance pressure translates into improved execution, the company’s growth narrative — and valuation — could finally re-rate after years of stagnation.

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