Embrace hard currency

The first trading day of the Year of the Horse sees the A-share indices “opening with a bang,” but the market’s intense divergence far exceeds appearances. Essentially, this is a market reshuffle driven by macro logic: funds are abandoning emotion-driven thematic speculation and embracing sectors with “hardcore logic”—centered on the global supply chain reset triggered by geopolitical tensions and the subsequent revaluation of resource commodities. [Taogu Ba]
First, market narratives are shifting from “storytelling” to “inflation + resources.”
The long-term themes of AI applications, robotics, and others that were popular over the past two years have given way on the first day of the new year to “re-inflation” trades. Oil and gas, chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and even AI hardware-driven sectors like power equipment, fiberglass, and MLCCs all point to “price increases.” The market is building a “technology + resources” dual-driven model: AI computing power expansion creates real demand for upstream materials (electronic fabrics, copper foil); tense US-Iran relations and the strategic inclusion of phosphorus by the US reinforce the strategic value of resource commodities.
Second, the market once again validates the rule: stay away from the “bustling” areas during holidays.
During the long holiday, sectors like AI, robotics, and film and television, which were hyped up, became the most brutal areas for post-holiday declines. Overly strong consensus expectations mean short-term buying points are exhausted, and funds are “pre-emptively betting on your predictions.” Escaping crowded media and AI applications, funds flow into low-priced sectors with solid logic such as oil and gas, chemicals, and export chains, indicating risk appetite remains but is more focused on seeking safety nets through “fundamentals confirmation” or “price increases.”
Third, the market characteristics in 2026: logic above all, rhythm is king.
The coexistence of a bull market in indices and difficulty in individual stocks will become the new normal. The phase of blindly buying core sectors in 2025 is over; 2026 will be a test of “logic + rhythm.” Currently, sectors like chemicals, power equipment, and resource commodities that are strengthening show a “step forward, step back” pattern—chasing highs easily leads to traps, and low-level adjustments with accumulation are the best strategies. While macro narratives are smooth, daily trading reveals intense sector rotation and stock differentiation.
Fourth, beware of the butterfly effect of “AI inflation and human deflation.”
The “2028 Global Intelligence Crisis” report, though an extreme scenario, accurately explains current deep anxieties: going long on resources (AI investment side) and short on consumption (human demand side). Markets worry that AI will exacerbate wealth inequality and suppress traditional consumption, leading to the strange phenomenon of “China Duty-Free” stocks falling limit down (weak consumption) while “oil, gas, and non-ferrous metals” hit daily limit-ups (rising resource costs). Of course, although consumer stocks are temporarily out of favor, with the upcoming Two Sessions and the focus on “silver-haired economy” and other national policies, the underperforming consumer sectors still have policy-driven rebound potential in the second half of the year.
● Overall, at the start of the Year of the Horse, the market’s intense divergence tells us: avoid crowded areas, and only places with “hard currency” are safe havens. In the context of a high probability of index oscillation upward, the clearest current offensive directions are “technology-driven upstream resources (AI hardware materials, electricity)” and “geopolitically driven strategic minerals (oil and gas, phosphorus, silver).” The core of all this remains “price increases.” For ordinary investors, 2026 is less about who earns the most at a certain moment, and more about who can stay clear-headed and steady amid this complex inflation narrative and rhythm control.

** (Note: The above content is for investment point analysis only and does not constitute any investment advice.)**