🕵️ Reserve Risk Indicators are declining. The model, which combines Reserve Risk with VOCDD/MVOCDD, is showing a clear downturn, signaling weakening alignment between price and long-term holder conviction. Since 2024, there have been four sell signals triggered by the indicator. In every case, price moved lower afterward. This typically occurs when:

• Reserve Risk remains elevated
• VOCDD/MVOCDD show rising economic activity from older coins
• There are signs of long-term holder distribution
Historically, this confluence has preceded corrective moves. Indicators are not narratives. They are probabilities grounded in on-chain behavior. Monitoring the relationship between conviction and activity is essential right now. #crypto