The escalation of US-Iran tensions has a core impact on cryptocurrencies, characterized by short-term intense pressure and a wave of high-leverage liquidations. BTC behaves more like high-beta tech stocks rather than gold; in the medium to long term, the outcome depends on the scale of the conflict. Local skirmishes may lead to quick rebounds, while full-scale war could trigger a liquidity crisis and deeper adjustments.

1. Current Market Conditions (2026-02-23)

- Price: BTC briefly dropped to $64,300 (down about 4.8% intraday), ETH fell below $1900.
- Liquidations: $465 million in total network contract liquidations over 24 hours, with 136,700 traders liquidated; long positions accounted for over 90%.
- Correlation: US stock futures declined simultaneously (Nasdaq futures down nearly 1%), with capital flowing into gold, US Treasuries, and other traditional safe-haven assets.

2. Core Impact Logic

- Short-term (0-72 hours): Liquidity drainage + deleveraging. War fears trigger a broad sell-off of risk assets. Institutions face margin calls and are forced to sell quickly liquidatable assets like BTC; high leverage amplifies volatility, creating a “sell-off—liquidation—re-sell” spiral. Historically, after Israel’s airstrike on Iran in June 2025 and the US military’s raid on Iran’s nuclear facilities in January 2026, BTC dropped about 5% within 24 hours, with over $1 billion in long positions liquidated.
- Medium-term (1-4 weeks): Scenario differentiation. Local skirmishes (targeted strikes, ongoing negotiations): after easing sentiment, BTC may rebound along with US stocks. Demand for cross-border transfers of stablecoins and BTC in sanctioned regions increases, providing structural support. Full-scale conflict (blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, energy crisis): soaring oil prices raise mining costs, and in a global recession panic, “cash is king,” pushing BTC further down to around $53,000. Extreme cases could test the $25,000–$30,000 range.
- Long-term (over 3 months): Narrative shift. If SWIFT sanctions expand, BTC’s “decentralized cross-border channel” attribute will be activated, similar to Ukraine’s fundraising via cryptocurrencies during the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Mining may accelerate concentration due to rising energy costs, leading to marginal miners exiting the market.

3. Key Judgments and Operational Recommendations

- Key Judgment: Currently, BTC does not yet possess the safe-haven qualities of “digital gold.” In high-leverage, low-liquidity environments, it reacts more sensitively to geopolitical news.
- Operational Suggestions: Reduce leverage or fully unwind leveraged positions to avoid chasing rallies; deploy spot positions gradually, watch the $60,000 support level, and consider staying on the sidelines if broken; hold some stablecoins and re-enter after panic emotions subside; closely monitor US-Iran negotiations and Strait of Hormuz shipping activity, as these are key signals for market reversals.