Top Institutions Discuss the Market: Optimistic About a New Upward Trend in A-shares After the Holiday, Two Main Lines to Capture the "Red Envelope Market"

One week before the holiday, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.41%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.39%, and the ChiNext Index gained 1.22%. How will the A-shares perform this week? We have summarized the latest investment strategies from major institutions for investors’ reference.

Industrial Securities Strategy: Continuing to Favor a New Upward Cycle in A-shares After the Holiday; Two Main Lines to Capture the “Red Envelope Market”

During the Spring Festival holiday, amid the correction of global liquidity expectations, resonance of geopolitical tensions and tariff disputes, major assets experienced gains. On one hand, global asset prices are still adjusting from overly pessimistic liquidity expectations caused earlier, combined with dovish signals from officials like Haskett, driving major global stock indices and precious metals to continue their recovery; on the other hand, renewed tensions in Iran increased oil prices sharply. The tariff disputes at the end of the holiday added new logic to global asset prices. After the U.S. Supreme Court ruled IEEPA tariffs illegal, global assets reflected the positive effects of reduced tariffs and the contraction of Trump’s administrative powers, with equities and precious metals—“weak dollar assets”—strengthening. Structurally, AI and resource commodities remain the two main focus areas in global markets, but their guidance for asset performance differs.

Shenwan Hongyuan Strategy: Stable Opening of A-shares in the Year of the Horse; Maintaining the “Two-Stage” Mid-term Uptrend Scenario

The spring market in 2026 is an extension of the 2025 structural trend, currently still in the high zone of the first stage of the upward trend. Historically, markets tend to front-run industry trend expectations, leading to valuation increases, but once sector valuations reach historical highs, resistance naturally increases. After the first stage of the rally, a prolonged period of consolidation typically follows. Since September 2025, main themes have alternated, with multiple sectors reaching historical valuation highs before entering consolidation phases: September saw Nvidia’s computing power chain, November focused on photovoltaics and energy storage, late December on Google’s computing chain, mid-January 2026 on commercial aerospace and AI applications, and late January on non-ferrous metals and basic chemicals. Currently, valuations in communications, electronics, defense and military industries, computers, and basic chemicals are all at historical highs, with the overall P/E ratio of A-shares also at high levels, indicating internal demand for correction. This consolidation phase mainly waits for further reinforcement of industry trends, validation of fundamental turning points (performance digesting valuations), easing of valuation concerns, and more sufficient conditions for residents’ asset allocation shift toward equities.

China Galaxy Strategy: How Will the Post-Holiday Market Evolve?

After the holiday, driven by policy expectations, liquidity support, and industry trend catalysts, the market is likely to oscillate upward, but short-term impacts from overseas uncertainties should be closely monitored. Around the “Two Sessions,” the A-share market may be driven mainly by policy catalysts, with funds competing around policy-guided industry themes and thematic opportunities, showing characteristics of “policy hot spots rotating and style switching rapidly.” In March, market logic will gradually shift from “policy expectations” to “performance realization,” with 2025 annual reports and the upcoming 2026 Q1 reports becoming key anchors. Stocks exceeding earnings expectations may attract capital focus. Key allocation opportunities include: first, the “anti-involution” concept driven by improved supply-demand patterns and industry profit recovery, as well as dividend assets with valuation safety margins—such as non-ferrous metals (precious metals), oil and petrochemicals, and basic chemicals, steel, cement, building materials, and financials; second, during the holiday, hotspots like robotics and AI large models received widespread attention, and post-holiday, structural highlights are expected. As the global landscape accelerates into unprecedented changes, the domestic economic logic shifts toward new productive forces, with key areas like semiconductors, AI, new energy, military industry, and aerospace worth关注。

GF Strategy: Non-U.S. Markets Continue Bullish Atmosphere During Holiday, Favoring Lightening A-shares Post-Holiday

Based on the performance of major overseas assets during the Spring Festival, global macro and policy variables, and industry catalysts, non-U.S. assets generally maintained a bullish atmosphere, with risk assets strengthening and indices in Europe, East Asia, and South America reaching new highs. This suggests that during the holiday, overseas risk appetite remained high, and concerns about black swan events before the holiday eased, favoring a lighter start for A-shares after the holiday. It also indicates ample global liquidity, with funds flowing into economies and markets with changing expectations. Many Chinese stocks with marginal changes are attractive to global capital. In summary, we maintain our pre-holiday view: as various factors align or uncertainties resolve, confidence should be restored, and preparations made for the first upward cycle of the Year of the Horse.

Everbright Strategy: Post-Holiday Market Expected to Oscillate Upward; Which Industries Are More Resilient?

The weekly strategy suggests the market may oscillate upward after the holiday. Historically, influenced by improved liquidity and rising risk appetite, A-shares tend to perform well in the 20 trading days after the Spring Festival. From 2012 to 2025, the probability of the CSI All Share Index rising in the 20 days after the holiday has been 75%. Most broad-based indices have shown significantly higher average gains in this period compared to the 20 days before the holiday. This year, A-shares may also perform well, supported by calendar effects, rising overseas markets, and domestic industry catalysts. Historically, which sectors show greater resilience after the holiday? Data from 2012-2025 shows most sectors have a high probability of gains in the 20 days post-holiday, especially growth and cyclicals like computers, environmental protection, communications, textiles and apparel, steel, and machinery. This is likely related to increased risk appetite and expectations around the “Two Sessions.”

Guotai Haitong Strategy: Expanding Domestic Demand Marks a Historic Turning Point; Recommend Low Valuation and Low Positioning Domestic Demand Sectors

Valuations and holdings across the domestic demand chain are at historic lows, reflecting a consensus of deep pessimism after years of decline. However, policies to expand domestic demand and boost prices are gaining traction, with industry profit expectations turning around. We believe that the decline in the market share of real estate in the past two years far exceeds its GDP contribution decline, and as expectations stabilize, valuations are likely to recover first. Recommendations: 1) Stabilize real estate expectations, clear tail risks of property companies with P/B below 1; 2) Deeply clear excess capacity in cyclical and consumer manufacturing sectors related to domestic demand, with signs of price turning points; sectors include building materials, chemicals, food and beverages, agriculture; 3) Policy optimization of supply quality and demand release, with recovery in consumer services and aviation.

Huajin Strategy: Post-Holiday Spring Market May Continue; Tech and Cyclical Sectors Preferable

The spring market after the holiday may continue with a slightly stronger trend. (1) Positive policy expectations post-holiday may rise, with limited external risks: first, policy expectations may improve; second, external risks are relatively limited—e.g., the U.S. Supreme Court ruling against Trump’s tariffs under IEEPA, but new tariffs of 10% on other tools, overall tariffs down, positive for U.S. stocks; ongoing risks like U.S.-Iran tensions and Japan-China relations remain. (2) Short-term liquidity may stay loose: macro liquidity could remain ample, and stock market funds may accelerate inflows. (3) Overseas markets performed steadily during the holiday, with limited impact on A-shares. (4) Economic and earnings recovery may continue weakly.

Dongwu Strategy: “Spring Festival Effect” in A-shares Is Significant; Expect a Positive Start

Historically, the “Spring Festival Effect” in A-shares is notable, with post-holiday funds likely to “reinvigorate” and drive momentum and price recovery, leading to an optimistic start. During the holiday, most global markets rose, risk appetite was high. Liquidity-wise, despite uncertainties in Fed rate cuts, market expectations for liquidity remained stable; offshore RMB exchange rates were stable. Domestic demand momentum steadily recovered. Industry trends like robotics and domestic large models continued fermenting during the holiday. As the Two Sessions approach, market stability expectations will strengthen further. U.S. officials confirmed Trump’s planned late March visit to China, which helps stabilize external outlooks. We remain optimistic about the post-holiday A-share performance. In terms of allocation, focus on medium-term industry trend certainty (greater resilience after correction) and the reversal of cyclicality (though full recovery of traditional economy lacks odds, it offers defensive attributes).

Zheshang Strategy: Mixed Signals with Slightly Stronger Volatility; Hold Positions and Observe

Looking ahead, during the holiday, overseas markets showed mixed signals: FTSE A50 rose 1.39%, Nasdaq and S&P 500 increased 1.51% and 1.07%, respectively; Hong Kong AI application stocks surged, offshore RMB broke 6.89. Meanwhile, Hang Seng and Hang Seng Tech declined 0.58% and 2.78%, with giants like Alibaba, Baidu, Meituan underperforming. Considering the pre-holiday rise and pullback of A-shares, and the typical post-holiday fund inflows, the probability of trend opportunities in A-shares is low in the short term. Expect mainly oscillations with some local opportunities in sectors like AI applications and robotics linked to overseas markets or the Spring Festival Gala. From a quarterly perspective, we remain optimistic about a “systematic slow bull” opportunity.

Guojin Strategy: Post-Holiday Market Themes Will Be More Clear

The core of style rebalancing is not whether AI bubbles exist but how AI’s macro impact, combined with monetary and major policy choices, is shifting the main contradictions. Tight supply chains have shifted: investment activity is spreading from AI-driven to broader real sectors; the relatively smooth path of U.S. rate cuts supports the recovery of the manufacturing cycle globally. This process may lead to re-pricing of Chinese assets’ productive capacity and promote capital inflows, boosting domestic consumption and inflation cycles. For commodities, after high volatility, industry pricing will be more driven by real factors than monetary ones; gold, as a risk hedge, may provide solid protection amid rising U.S. debt sustainability concerns. Recommendations: 1) Revaluation of physical assets shifting from liquidity and dollar credit to low inventory and demand stabilization—copper, aluminum, tin, crude oil, shipping, rare earths, gold; 2) China’s export chains with global advantages and bottoming cycles—power grid equipment, energy storage, engineering machinery, wafer manufacturing—and domestically bottoming industries—petrochemicals, dyeing, coal chemicals, pesticides, polyurethane, titanium dioxide; 3) Capital inflows, easing balance sheet reduction, and inbound personnel trends support consumption recovery—airlines, duty-free, hotels, food and beverages; 4) Benefiting from market expansion and long-term asset returns bottoming—non-bank financials.