Crypto Daily Report #加密市场观察 02.05(：Bitcoin Price Gaps Down Triggering Massive Liquidations, ETF Holdings Stable but Short-Term Pressure

I. Bitcoin Price Fluctuations and Market Sentiment
1. Bitcoin futures markets experienced a price gap during the weekend closure, dropping from $84,445 to $77,385. The spot market correspondingly fell to about $75,000, forming a clear price disconnect. 2. Bitcoin broke below a key support level ($74,295), triggering stop-loss and short-covering orders. Technical analysis indicates a "free fall" mode, with short-term targets down to $72,000 and medium-term support at the historic bottom of $69,000. 3. Panic sentiment is spreading, with total cryptocurrency liquidations within 24 hours reaching $777 million, including $292 million in Bitcoin and $306 million in Ethereum, putting major pressure on long positions. 4. Bitcoin rebounded amid extreme panic (Panic Index at 14), but prices remain defensive. Caution is advised regarding the effectiveness of the key support at $72,800.

II. Bitcoin Market Capital Flows and ETF Dynamics
1. The actual outflow ratio of Bitcoin ETF assets is only about 6%, with 94% still held by investors. New-generation ETF investors tend to adopt long-term holding strategies, indicating market confidence remains relatively intact. 2. Centralized exchanges (CEX) saw a net inflow of 4,069.98 BTC within 24 hours, mainly flowing into Bn (2,780.43 BTC), Kk (1,975.72 BTC), and Bit (965.37 BTC), reflecting short-term risk aversion or bottom-fishing sentiment. 3. Gem experienced an outflow of 1,315.59 BTC, possibly related to long-term holding behavior.

III. Long-Term Risks and Market Perspectives on Bitcoin
1. Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz believes the biggest current risk for Bitcoin is internal governance issues (such as developer disagreements), rather than quantum computing hype. He expects Bitcoin to address these risks through technological upgrades. 2. The market generally considers Bitcoin near cycle lows, with some views citing $72,000 as a critical support level. Caution is advised against further decline toward the historic bottom of $69,000. However, some believe panic has been partially released, potentially triggering a technical rebound in the short term.

IV. Macroeconomics and Bitcoin Correlation
1. The US tech sector (especially software industry) continues to decline amid AI concerns, with the iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF (IGV) falling 17% over the week. This shows a correlation with Bitcoin prices, as weakness in tech stocks drags down crypto risk appetite. 2. Gold prices broke through $5,100 per ounce, boosting risk aversion sentiment. Although Bitcoin's link to gold's traditional safe-haven properties is weak, the decline in tech stocks may lead some funds to flow into gold, indirectly affecting Bitcoin's short-term performance.

V. US Policy and Strategic Bitcoin Reserves
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent defended the strategic Bitcoin reserve, stating its value has grown from $500 million to $15 billion. The US continues to hold this reserve, emphasizing its long-term value as a macro asset.