Pi Network 2026 Price Outlook: The Battle Between KYC Verification Push and Large-Scale Unlocking

Lessons from 2025: From Peak to Trough

Pi Network experienced a rollercoaster ride in its first full year since mainnet launch. Shortly after the mainnet release on February 20, the PI token hit a historic high of $3.00 on February 26, then embarked on a prolonged downward trend. Current data shows that PI has fallen over 90% from its peak, down to approximately $0.21. The core driver of this change is not a lack of attention—rather, market enthusiasm has failed to translate into sustained demand.

Over the past year, PI has gone through several key moments, almost all of which evolved into selling pressure: the Pi Day community event on March 14 saw a 7% single-day drop, and the entire March recorded over 66% monthly decline. Even high-profile public activities by the project could not support the price—multiple major ecosystem announcements were accompanied by significant price declines, indicating market skepticism about actual utility far exceeded project expectations.

Supply Pressure and Distribution Challenges

Market skepticism towards Pi Network boils down to two questions: where are the real, sustainable on-chain applications? and when will token supply flood into exchanges?

Contradiction Between User Base and Token Accumulation

According to official data, 17.5 million users have completed KYC verification, with 15.7 million migrated to mainnet. This number is unique in the crypto ecosystem—most projects cannot reach such a scale of KYC verification. However, this large-scale on-chain presence also introduces potential supply risks.

Currently, about 437 million PI tokens are stored on centralized exchanges. While this only accounts for 3.4% of the total supply (1.2895 billion tokens), it still reflects a concentration of token liquidity. More concerning is the large amount of tokens held by the Pi Foundation and its affiliates, plus over 391 million PI held by an unknown wallet (worth about $81 million), indicating a high degree of supply centralization. This structure could lead to sharp price swings and increases the risk of market manipulation and opaque over-the-counter trading.

Turning Point in 2026: From Promise to Execution

If 2025 was a year testing community loyalty, then 2026 will be a year to verify the project’s real capabilities. Both favorable and risky factors are forming a tug-of-war.

Factors Supporting the Price

The upgrade to Stellar Protocol v23—planned for 2026—will introduce smart contract functionality. This is a significant milestone, representing an evolution from a single settlement layer to an application ecosystem. Corresponding ecosystem tools are also in development: decentralized exchange (DEX), automated market maker (AMM) liquidity pools, and token creation tools are already showcased on testnet.

In terms of ecosystem development, past hackathons (Hackathon) attracted 215 mainnet application proposals, with winners spanning social apps, loyalty platforms, and gaming scenarios. Gaming collaborations are also underway, with initial platform testing expected in Q1 2026 to explore PI as an in-game currency.

From a commercial perspective, PI’s greatest asset is its distributed user base—potentially valuable for payment applications, local business integrations, and regulatory asset allocation.

Factors Putting Pressure on the Price

1.31 billion PI tokens are scheduled to unlock in 2026. In a market already highly sensitive to supply, this amount could exert sustained downward pressure on the price. If KYC verification accelerates—thanks to improvements in AI-assisted validation—it could speed up token inflows into exchanges.

Additionally, obstacles to exchange listing also limit liquidity expansion. Pi Network’s strict KYB(Know Your Business) requirements for exchanges make it difficult to list on top-tier platforms, weakening the “liquidity unlocking” narrative relied upon by many ecosystem communities.

Technical Analysis: Possibility of Conditional Rebound

From the daily logarithmic chart, the decline since the peak on February 26 has lasted 10 months. PI is currently trading just above the psychological support level of $0.2000.

Downside Risks

If selling pressure persists, key technical support levels include:

• $0.1924 (October 17 low)
• $0.1533 (October 10 low)
• $0.1000 (mainnet launch price), seen as the last line of defense in an extremely bearish scenario

Breaking below $0.1000 would enter a full price discovery zone, indicating the market has not yet identified a true bottom.

Rebound Signals

Conversely, although more conditional, technical indicators are not entirely pessimistic. The weekly RSI is at 30 and rising, forming a bullish divergence with the price bottom. The MACD is also rising in the negative zone, suggesting selling pressure is waning.

If PI can print a double bottom reversal and break through the $0.2945 neckline (October 27 high), subsequent targets could be $0.4000 (from support turning into resistance) and the psychological $0.5000 level. In theory, a mid-2026 rebound could even test above $1, provided the project delivers substantial utility and absorbs the supply shock from unlocks.

Market Scenarios and Possible Price Paths in 2026

Based on predictive analysis from market participants, there are three differentiated scenarios for PI in 2026:

Conservative Scenario ($0.35–$0.75) If user adoption remains limited, real application scenarios are scarce, and liquidity and exchange support stay constrained, PI will likely remain in a long-term bottoming phase. In this case, ecosystem expansion announcements alone are unlikely to drive prices upward.

Neutral Scenario ($0.75–$2.00) In this scenario, ecosystem applications (DApps), payments, and merchant integrations gradually expand, with new exchange support arriving sequentially. User growth and activity improve visibly, supporting a valuation correction upward.

Optimistic Scenario ($2.00 and above) This requires accelerated global adoption, on-chain utility reaching scale, a bullish macro crypto market, and favorable regulatory environments all occurring simultaneously. This is the most uncertain but potentially most rewarding scenario.

Key Variables: KYC Verification Speed and Unlock Pace

Accelerating KYC verification is a double-edged sword. AI-assisted identity validation can indeed speed up token migration, but the concentration of large-scale unlocks and sell-offs in a short period could suppress prices in the near term. The project has previously used staking rewards and gradual migration to mitigate this pressure, but market expectations suggest some selling pressure remains unavoidable.

Final Thoughts

Whether 2026 will be the pivotal year for Pi Network’s transition from a “massive community” to “real utility” depends on the coordination of three factors:

1. Technical Delivery: Smooth implementation of Stellar v23 upgrade and smart contracts
2. Ecosystem Maturity: Real deployment of DApps, payment scenarios, and merchant onboarding
3. Transparent Communication: Clear, trustworthy roadmap regarding tokenomics and unlock plans

Token price recovery will not be based on “hope”—but on proof of execution and market re-recognition of the project’s true value. In this context, 2026 is indeed a test and an opportunity for Pi Network.