#美联储政策走向 Seeing BitMine increase its holdings by 138,452 ETH this week brings to mind several key moments over the past decade. From the DAO incident in 2015 to the ICO bubble in 2017, and then to the madness of the DeFi summer in 2020, each major institutional purchase corresponds to a turning point in the cycle.

The significance of this accelerated buying deserves careful consideration. The growth rate jumped from a weekly average of 54,156 coins four weeks ago to 138,452 coins now, an increase of 156%. This is not a routine operation, but an attitude - a bet on certain certainties. The Fusaka upgrade will be activated on December 3, and the technical improvements do add weight to the fundamentals. However, what resonates with me the most is the backdrop of the Federal Reserve's policy shift.

Do you remember the crash in 2022? At that time, many believed that the interest rate hike cycle would be extended indefinitely. Now the Federal Reserve is beginning to end quantitative tightening, and another interest rate cut on December 10 is imminent, leading to a qualitative change in the entire liquidity environment. Eight weeks is enough for the market sentiment to shift from panic to rational pricing. This time window is familiar to me — historically, every real reversal requires such a "silent period" for emotions to settle and for capital to have the opportunity to reassess the fundamentals.

From the surge in 2013 to the bear market in 2018, and from the rebound in 2019 to the bubble in 2021, I have noticed a pattern: when large institutions start to accelerate their entry, it is often accompanied by a turning point in the macro environment. BitMine currently holds over 3.86 million ETH, a volume sufficient to impact market sentiment. The question is not whether they buy or not, but the signals behind this buying rhythm— the Federal Reserve's pivot is becoming the new cycle driver.

In the coming months, I tend to remain cautiously optimistic. The combination of technological upgrades, policy shifts, and institutional positioning has historically supported a strong rebound. However, the lessons of 2023 are still fresh in my mind—every rally may face unexpected variables. It's essential to prepare psychologically and wait for confirmation signals; this is a necessary lesson for surviving in this market.