2025-12-16 09:21:46

Dear traders, there is a major data release tonight at 21:30 — the November Non-Farm Payrolls and the revised October employment data. The issue is, the authenticity of this data has already been significantly compromised.

Rather than saying this is a guessing game, it’s more like a precise market stress test. Will the "downside risks" repeatedly emphasized by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell be confirmed in this data? The key point is that it directly influences the direction of global liquidity expectations. The crypto market will be the first to feel the impact.

**Why might this data be "watered down"?**

The aftermath of the government shutdown cannot be underestimated. Anomalies in the statistical samples have already raised alarms among top economists: the November unemployment rate might be artificially inflated. The 4.5% figure or even higher may not reflect the true employment situation. What the market is trading is actually a discounted signal.

There’s also a more painful truth — Powell himself revealed that since April, official employment data may have been overstated by about 60,000 jobs each month. If corrected for this, US employment growth would have been close to zero or even shrinking. Tonight’s data is just another faint reflection of this harsh reality.

**The labor market is actually frozen.**

Companies are neither hiring en masse nor laying off significantly; the entire market is in a fragile freeze. If this situation persists, how will liquidity expectations adjust? The direction of crypto asset allocation will also fluctuate accordingly.

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DegenTherapist

· 12-16 09:51

It's just the usual fake data trick; the authenticity has long been gone. What are we trading for? We're just betting on how Powell will scare the market. Waiting to see if we can get a good price to buy the dip—that's the real focus. The labor market is frozen; who still cares about non-farm payroll numbers? It's all just a show. Once liquidity loosens, crypto will take off directly. Tonight might be a window of opportunity.

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Layer2Observer

· 12-16 09:26

Wait, Powell himself said that the overstatement is 60,000? How much would the data need to be discounted to be considered accurate... --- Reporting 60,000 jobs falsely each month, how much does that add up to... No wonder the market is trading signals that are watered down --- In simple terms, it's just hype over problematic data; a crypto market decline is inevitable --- The liquidity expectation is indeed worth paying attention to, but first we need to calculate the water content in the official data --- Frozen status is more heartbreaking than a sharp decline; the market's lack of response ability is even more dangerous --- Instead of waiting until 21:30 to look at this data, it's better to first analyze how the overstatement of 60,000 was produced... --- Companies neither hire nor lay off... This is called a fragile balance, and a slight disturbance can cause everything to collapse

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