#美联储降息预测 If the Fed's rate cut in December still can't push Bitcoin to a new all-time high, the crypto market will be confirmed to have entered a bear market

A Fed rate cut in December 2025 is pretty much set in stone. Analysts at BNY Mellon, strategists at Barclays and Bank of America all predict the FOMC will announce its rate decision on December 9–10, 2025 (ET), lowering the benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%.

Recently, there’s been more and more discussion about “rate cuts” in the market—a lot of people are asking: If the Fed really cuts rates in December, will crypto see a major surge? Here are my thoughts👇

First, on the macro level, the Fed’s policy has an undeniable impact on the crypto market.

Think back to 2020, during the worst of the pandemic—rate cuts + massive quantitative easing (QE) triggered a U-shaped reversal in both the crypto and global financial markets. Bitcoin’s price shot up from below $6,000 after the “312” crash to over $60,000.

From 2023–2024, as rate hike cycles peaked and expectations loosened, plus the arrival of ETFs and institutional capital, Bitcoin and other major coins broke new highs again. The Fed’s dovish policies have a huge macro impact on the entire crypto market, so naturally the crypto community is paying special attention to this month’s FOMC meeting and rate decision.

But that doesn’t mean a Fed rate cut will definitely boost the crypto market.

✨Possible risks / dampening factors

If the rate cut is due to severe economic weakness (“rescue-type” rate cut), investors may actually prefer safe havens and not necessarily pour into crypto.
The US Dollar Index, USD trends, US bond yields, and international capital flows can all disrupt the market—crypto might not follow.
Rate cut expectations may already be priced in—when it’s actually announced, it could be a “buy the rumor, sell the news” event, leading to increased short-term volatility.

According to past four-year cycles in the crypto market, Bitcoin’s price reached bull market peaks and broke all-time highs in December 2013, December 2017, and December 2021.

Now, we’re in December 2025, with the added tailwind of a Fed rate cut. One thing is clear: If this Fed rate cut still can’t significantly boost the crypto market—such as Bitcoin breaking $100,000 and Ethereum exceeding $4,000—my assessment is that the market’s “bull run” expectations will be completely shattered, and the bear market cycle will be confirmed.

Personally, I hope Bitcoin can break new highs in December and continue the “four-year cycle” consensus. But if the market remains choppy, I’ll liquidate all my spot holdings by the end of December. I’ll only trade in two scenarios:
1. Bitcoin breaks new highs—I’ll buy the breakout and target $150,000+
2. Bitcoin drops to $60,000–$80,000—I’ll buy the dip and hold until the next bull market cycle!
$BTC $ETH