[December 8 — December 12 Macro Highlights]

Core: Fed rate decision, December dot plot, will Powell be pushed toward dovish rate cut rhetoric?

1. Confirmed Data
- December 11 (03:00 Beijing time): Fed announces interest rate; CME rate cut probability at 86%, essentially locked in

2. Will further rate cuts continue?
① December dot plot:
- How much rate cut room is left after the neutral rate enters 3.50%—3.75% range;
- 2026 path—number and magnitude of cuts, implying the latest assessment of the economy, employment, and inflation
② Powell press conference:
- Hawkish cut: raising the threshold for further cuts → bearish for risk assets;
- Neutral cut: avoids further easing, also avoids tightening, adjusts in real time depending on data;
- Dovish cut: confirms economic slowdown, employment risks, inflation under control → strengthens easing expectations

3. Conclusion
This week is a watershed for 2026 rate expectations: the dot plot sets the range, Powell sets the pace; additional noise may come from when Trump nominates a new chair—if Hassett makes an early “shadow” move, it could disrupt market interpretation