#比特币对比代币化黄金 Can ten thousand yuan turn into a hundred thousand? Don’t laugh just yet—listen to this math problem first.

Lately, there’s been a “get-rich-quick formula” going around: take 10,000 RMB and flip USDT. At an exchange rate of 6.95, you can buy 1,438 USDT. Then, you sell it with a Hong Kong card at 7.83, instantly getting 11,266 HKD. Convert it back, and you end up with 10,232 RMB—a net profit of 232 yuan in a single transaction, a 2.32% return.

Sounds straightforward and aggressive? Some people did the math: using compound interest formula (1+0.0232)^10, after 10 flips the principal becomes 12,577, earning over 2,500! What about 100 flips? Financial freedom must be just around the corner, right?

The math isn’t wrong. But reality can make the math shut up.

The “hidden costs” that aren’t factored in are the real killers.

The exchange rate difference is real, but profits are eaten away by three things:

Fee black hole—every exchange and cross-border transfer comes with bank commissions and platform service fees stacking up. The 232 yuan profit might not even cover the fees.

Exchange rate fluctuations—6.95 and 7.83 are just snapshots at one moment. When you actually operate, the rates may invert. Yesterday’s arbitrage opportunity could turn into a loss today.

Policy crackdowns—frequent large exchanges can instantly trigger anti-money laundering systems; accounts can be frozen, funds seized, and you might not even get a chance to appeal.

Flip 100 times, and only 60% make it out alive

Assume the chance of getting caught per transaction is 0.5% (already a very conservative estimate):

10 flips, survival rate is 95.11%—looks okay?
100 flips, survival rate plummets to 60.57%—meaning nearly half will get burned.
1,000 flips, survival rate drops to just 0.665%—basically like buying lottery tickets with your principal.

Math doesn’t lie, but probability does.

A true story from my friend Lao Wang: three flips, lost 5,000

First time, earned 200; second time, earned 300, thought he got the hang of it. Third time, USDT price suddenly crashed. Before he could act, the bank called—account abnormally frozen, required proof of fund source.

After two months’ hassle to unfreeze, ended up losing 5,000 in fees and interest.

“Thought I found a money printer, turned out to be a cash dispenser.” That’s how Lao Wang summed it up.

Would you really dare to reach for this kind of money?

Don’t be fooled by the 2.32% return—the exchange rate, policies, and fees are three mountains. Any one collapsing could crush you.

Frequent cross-platform, cross-jurisdiction flipping may be considered illegal business operations. You could end up in trouble before making any money, which would be the most absurd ending.

Principal safety always comes first. Better to earn less than bet on that “survival rate”—after all, making money only to lose your freedom is the worst ending in this game.