#ETH走势分析 Tonight at 23:00, the delayed September PCE data will be released. How significant is this indicator for risk assets? Just look at the sharp volatility after each historical release.

The current market is caught in a subtle contradiction: calls for rate cuts are growing louder, but inflation data just isn't cooperating. This tug-of-war is leaving investors extremely conflicted—the US tech sector has been oscillating under these emotions, and the crypto market reacts even faster.

What if the PCE data shows inflation remains stubborn? Then the Fed's "higher rates for longer" policy stance won't change. All high-risk assets will come under pressure; $BTC, $ETH, and $SOL are almost certain to face short-term headwinds.

But what if the data beats expectations and inflation is really starting to cool? The market will quickly shift to an optimistic "all bad news priced in" sentiment, and the rebound could be fiercer than expected. This is often when smart money enters the market.

What should retail investors do? Three principles:

**Control leverage.** The price swings in the minutes before and after the data release can be terrifying. Many people lose a week's profits in five minutes because they couldn't withstand the volatility.

**Watch correlations.** US stock trends, Bitcoin's reaction speed, stablecoin capital flows—these signals are more useful than any prediction. Changes in market sentiment are often hidden in these details.

**Remember the big cycle.** Macro data only affects the short-term rhythm; it cannot change the long-term upward trend of the crypto industry. The real big opportunities are often hidden in these moments of "irrational panic."

The more chaotic the market, the more you need to keep a steady mindset. Most people lose money not because they bet the wrong direction, but because of emotional instability and overtrading. If you can hold your position during key moments and not get shaken out, you'll naturally be part of the next rally.

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