#数字货币市场洞察 ETH on the 1-hour chart is currently stuck at a key watershed level, with both bulls and bears deadlocked at this position. Here’s a simple breakdown of the current situation to help everyone judge the next move.

First, let’s look at the distribution of resistance and support.

On the upside, pay attention to the Bollinger upper band at 3197.48, combined with the psychological level at 3200. There’s considerable selling pressure from profit-takers gathered here. If there’s a breakout with strong volume, the short-term could open up more upside, with the next target near the previous high of 3239.27. If it can hold above this level, the 3300+ area becomes possible.

Looking downward, the Bollinger lower band at 3114.81 is a sensitive point; a break below could trigger a deeper pullback. Additionally, the MA90 is at 3167.62, very close to the current price. Whether this line can hold will directly test the strength of the bulls.

Now, let’s look at trend signals.

MA7 and MA90 are very close together, and EMA30 has flattened out, indicating that short-term bull and bear forces are balanced and could choose a direction at any moment. On the MACD indicator, the DIF has crossed below the DEA and the histogram has turned negative, showing signs of bearishness. However, the rebound structure from 2718 hasn’t been completely destroyed yet—only a real break below 3115 would confirm a trend reversal.

There are also some fundamentals worth noting.

Expectations for a Fed rate cut are indeed boosting the market, but beware of a “buy the rumor, sell the news” scenario. The ETH Cancun upgrade has been live for a while and is now in the results validation phase, with Layer2 ecosystem activity being an important metric to watch.

On-chain data shows exchange balances continue to decline, with tokens concentrating in the hands of long-term holders—a positive signal for the mid- to long-term. However, the growth rate of staking has recently slowed, which could present some potential selling pressure.

Overall, ETH is likely to continue fluctuating within this range in the short term. The direction will only be confirmed with a breakout above or below key levels on strong volume. Everyone should manage their positions carefully to avoid being whipsawed. $ETH