GPU Chip Battle: NVIDIA vs TSMC, Who is the Real Winner in the AI Era?

Data comparison is clear at a glance

NVIDIA and TSMC are both reaping the benefits of AI, but their growth rates and risks are completely different:

NVIDIA(NVDA)

• Q3 Fiscal Year 2026 revenue is $57.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 62%.
• Data center revenue is $51.2 billion, accounting for 89.8%, a year-on-year increase of 66%.
• Expected revenue growth rate in 2026: 57.9%; in 2027: 36.1%
• Forward PE: 30.38 times
• Annual increase: 34.5%

TSMC(TSM)

• Q3 2025 revenue of $33.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 41%
• EPS growth 39%, year-on-year growth 39%
• Revenue growth rate in 2025: 33.7%; in 2026: 20.6%
• Forward PE: 23.47 times (cheaper)
• Increase this year: 40.5%

Who's growing faster?

NVIDIA is leading by a wide margin. The reason is simple: NVIDIA masters AI chip design, while TSMC is only responsible for foundry services.

NVIDIA's Hopper and Blackwell GPU architectures have devoured orders from cloud vendors and enterprise clients. The latest collaboration with OpenAI (to build a large-scale AI data center) has further secured demand for the coming years.

Although TSMC's 3nm and 2nm processes are the most advanced in the world, AI-related revenue is expected to triple in 2024 and double again in 2025. However, the growth rate is noticeably slower than NVIDIA's—this highlights the difference between design and manufacturing.

Where is the risk?

NVIDIA: Relatively low risk, but the valuation is high (PE 30 times)

TSMC: There are three major pitfalls

1. Geopolitical Risk: China's revenue accounts for a large portion, and U.S. export restrictions will directly cut into revenue.
2. High Expansion Costs: Capital expenditures of $4-4.2 billion in 2025 (compared to $3 billion in 2024), building new plants in the United States, Japan, and Germany.
3. Gross margin needs to be squeezed: Due to high labor and energy costs at new overseas factories, the gross margin is expected to decline by 2-3 percentage points each year over the next 3-5 years.

Investment Conclusion

In the long term, TSMC is cheap (PE 23 vs 30), and its business is stable. However, in the short term, NVIDIA is getting the meat, while TSMC is getting the soup.

If you pursue stable returns + reasonable valuation → choose TSMC If you are optimistic about the explosive growth of AI infrastructure → choose Nvidia (although a bit expensive, but worth the growth)

Currently, institutions give NVIDIA a buy rating ( Rank #2)，台积电是持有(Rank #3). This is the answer.