Bitcoin Stalls at the $100,000 Mark: On-chain Data Reveals Market's True Sentiment

Bitcoin recently fell below 100,000 USD, and many people are beginning to struggle with the question - is this a signal for a rebound from the bottom, or will there be further sell with bearish market? Let's look for answers from on-chain and exchange data.

Current Situation: Neither panic buying at the bottom nor optimistic chasing the rise

Key Data Overview

• BTC is currently hovering around $100,000, down about 21% from the September high of $126,000.
• 71% of Bitcoin holders are still in a profit state (this is a key signal)
• The unrealized loss rate is only 3.1%, far lower than the 10%+ level during the bear market of 2022-2023.

What does this indicate? It is not yet a deep bear market. If the market truly falls into panic, these two indicators will worsen.

The problem arises: long-term holders are secretly selling coins

From July until now, long-term holders of Bitcoin (usually referring to veteran players who have held for more than six months) have cumulatively sold off about 300,000 BTC. Even more heartbreaking is that they did not stop selling even when Bitcoin surged to its October peak — this is quite rare in past cycles.

What does this mean? Experienced players may be taking profits on highs, or they may lack confidence in the future market.

From the Perspective of Institutions and Retail Investors

The attitude of institutions turns cold

• The US spot Bitcoin ETF has seen outflows of $150 million to $700 million daily over the past two weeks.
• Compared to the continuous net inflow from September to early October, this is a 180-degree turn.

Retail investors market has no one to take over

• The CVD indicator of trading volume for mainstream exchanges such as Binance and Coinbase has turned negative, indicating that the selling pressure is stronger.
• The shorts are pushing down the price, but there are no obvious signs of bottom fishing.

Details of the Derivatives Market

The perpetual contract financing rate has dropped significantly

• From the monthlyized $3.38 million in April to the current $1.18 million
• Investors are reducing their long leverage, which is a sign of risk aversion.

Bearish options become mainstream

• The premium for put options around $100,000 has soared.
• Many traders are using options to buy insurance instead of bottom-fishing at the bottom.
• This indicates that the market mentality is “first protect, then talk”, rather than “bottom fishing”.

Where is the bottom line? Where is the rebound?

Possible support: $88500 (actual holding cost of active traders), if it falls below this level, it may trigger larger-scale liquidations and panic selling.

What is needed for a Rebound: To regain the range of 112,000-113,000 USD. As long as this area can be held, it indicates that new buying is entering the market, and it may potentially reverse.

Summary: A “fragile balance” state

The current Bitcoin market resembles a situation where “no one is continuing to sell off, and no one is rushing in to buy the dip.” Whales are selling, retail investors are fleeing, and institutions are observing. The market is not in deep panic, but there are also no positive signals.

The next step depends on two factors:

1. Can new funds enter the market to absorb the selling pressure from long-term holders?
2. Can it regain the psychological barrier of 112K

If it can't be done, then continuing to test down to 88.5K is not impossible. Conversely, once there is a strong rebound, these high-premium put options will become a “golden opportunity” for sellers.

In simple terms: Now is not the time to panic buy, nor is it the time to chase highs. Wait for signals.