BTC daily chart depth analysis (SCDO_AI report) — key change in market trend window under Bull vs Bear Battle: April 13, 2025

Current Price: $84,574

I. Multi-Dimensional Analysis of Technical Indicators

1. Trend and Momentum Indicators

• MACD (12,26,9)：

  • DIF: Positive value, located above the zero axis
  • DEA: Positive, slightly lower than DIF
  • MACD Column: The green histogram line shortens, indicating a weakening of bearish momentum.
  • Conclusion: The bullish trend is still present, but caution is needed regarding the risk of weakening momentum.

• EMA Combination:

  • EMA30: 83,000 USD
  • EMA200: $75,000
  • Conclusion: The price is between EMA30 and EMA200, the short-term trend is bullish, but attention should be paid to the support of EMA30.

2. Oscillation and Volume Indicators

• KDJ (9,3,3):

  • K Value: 65 (Neutral to Bullish)
  • D Value: 60
  • J Value: 75
  • Conclusion: The indicators are in a neutral zone, and fluctuations may occur in the short term.

• Bollinger Bands (20,2):

  • Middle Track: $84,000
  • Upper and Lower Bands: $80,000 / $88,000
  • Conclusion: The price is close to the middle band, and the Bollinger Bands are narrowing, indicating that there may be significant fluctuations in the future.

• Trading Volume: The trading volume in the past 24 hours was $2.5 billion, an increase of 10% compared to the previous day, indicating an increase in market activity.

3. Special Indicators

• TD Sequence: The current count is 7, approaching a potential reversal point, pay attention to the subsequent K-line patterns.
• AO (Awesome Oscillator): Positive value, indicating bullish momentum is dominant.
• RSI (14-day): 58, in the neutral to bullish zone

2. Key Support and Resistance

3. Multi-Period Resonance Analysis

• Daily Level: The price is running above the EMA30, and the MACD shows bullish momentum, indicating a short-term upward trend.
• 4-hour level: The KDJ indicator shows overbought conditions, and a short-term correction may occur.
• Weekly Level: The price is approaching historical highs, attention should be paid to whether it breaks through or forms a double top structure.

IV. Macroeconomics and On-Chain Drivers

• Macroeconomic Events:

• Federal Reserve Policy: The market expects that the Federal Reserve may keep current interest rates unchanged, with limited impact on the crypto market in the short term.

  • Geopolitics: A stable global situation is beneficial for the performance of risk assets.

• On-chain data:

• Whale Movements: In the past week, the number of wallets holding over 1,000 BTC has increased, indicating that large holders are optimistic about the market outlook.

  • Exchange Net Inflow: The net inflow of BTC to major exchanges has decreased, which may indicate a reduction in market supply.

5. Tomorrow’s (April 14) Trend Forecast

Scenario 1: Continuation of Rise (Probability 60%)

• Trigger Conditions:

• Price breaks through $86,000, trading volume increases

  • The MACD histogram continues to grow, indicating strengthening bullish momentum.

• Target Price: $88,000 (all-time high)

Scenario 2: Consolidation (Probability 30%)

• Trigger Condition:

  • The price fluctuates between 83,000 and 86,000 dollars.

• Trading volume remains at current levels, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market.

• Strategy: Sell high, buy low, short-term trading

Scenario 3: Callback Drop (Probability 10%)

• Trigger Condition:

  • Price falls below $83,000, trading volume increases
  • The MACD has formed a death cross, indicating an increase in bearish momentum.

• Target Level: $80,000 (Bollinger Band Lower Bound)

7. Quantitative Model Scoring

VIII. Comprehensive Conclusion

The current price of BTC is above a key support level, and technical indicators show a bullish trend, but caution is needed for short-term pullback risks. Investors are advised to closely monitor price performance at $83,000 and $86,000, and to flexibly adjust operations based on changes in trading volume and technical indicators