Bankless 2026 Crypto Prediction: Bitcoin Breaks Four-Year Cycle, ICO Makes a Strong Comeback

Crypto information and research platform Bankless posted the top 10 predictions for cryptocurrencies in 2026 on X. The core points include: Bitcoin will break the 4-year cycle to reach a new all-time high, ETF purchases will surpass BTC, ICOs will make a strong comeback replacing airdrops, and more. Bankless co-founder David Hoffman specifically emphasizes that 2026 is the year of tokenization.

Bankless 2026 Top 10 Cryptocurrency Predictions Core Points

The full prediction list released by Bankless indicates that 2026 will be a year dominated by institutions. Bitcoin will break the 4-year cycle pattern to set a new all-time high, overturning the historical pattern since 2013 where each halving year peaks. Even more astonishing is that Bitcoin’s volatility will be lower than Nvidia, implying that Bitcoin is transitioning from a speculative asset to a relatively stable store of value.

Highlights of Bankless 2026 Cryptocurrency Predictions

· Bitcoin will break the 4-year cycle and reach a new all-time high;

· Bitcoin volatility will be lower than Nvidia;

· As institutional demand accelerates, ETF purchases will buy over 100% of new supply of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana;

· Performance of crypto stocks will outperform tech stocks;

· Open interest in Polymarket will hit new highs, surpassing levels during the 2024 US election;

· Stablecoins will be accused of undermining the stability of emerging market currencies;

· On-chain treasury (, also known as ETF 2.0 ), will double in asset management size;

· If the Clarity Act passes, Ethereum and Solana will hit record highs;

· Half of Ivy League endowments will invest in cryptocurrencies;

· The US will launch over 100 crypto-related ETP products.

The prediction that ETF purchases will exceed new supply by 100% is extremely aggressive. Bitcoin adds about 450 coins daily (post-halving), worth roughly $39 million at current prices. If ETF daily purchases surpass this amount, it means circulating supply in the spot market will continue to decrease, creating a structural supply crunch. Under this scenario, price increases are almost inevitable, as additional demand can only be met by existing holders.

Tokenization Year and ICO Resurgence: A Double Revolution

The most disruptive points in Bankless’s 2026 crypto predictions are the year of tokenization and the return of ICOs. Hoffman points out that Larry Fink of BlackRock wrote in The Economist, as if “placing an arm on every traditional finance baby boomer’s shoulder,” declaring “we have finally found the use case for blockchain… and that is tokenization.”

This endorsement from the CEO of the world’s largest asset manager carries more than just technical significance. It signifies the formation of Wall Street consensus: blockchain is not for speculation but for reconstructing traditional financial assets. After the frenzy of stablecoin gold rushes in traditional finance, the tokenization race will begin. SEC Chairman Paul Atkins has stated that all US capital markets will be on-chain within two years. BlackRock already has very successful tokenization products (like the BUIDL fund), and clearly aims to launch more.

The return of ICOs is a rejection of the airdrop models of the past three years. Hoffman bluntly states: “Yield farming, airdrops, staking programs… these are all poor and complicated workarounds.” Centuries ago, capital markets realized that directly selling assets to interested investors is the best way to raise funds. With Gary Gensler stepping down, crypto finally has the regulatory tolerance it needs.

Aztec recently set an important precedent with a token sale. Aztec completed legal work in advance, issuing a legal opinion confirming that $AZTEC tokens are not securities and can be sold to US investors and non-accredited investors. More importantly, they conducted the entire token sale on-chain via Uniswap CCA, without using any intermediaries. This sets a template for the legal foundation and feasibility of future on-chain token sales.

Quantum Threats and Robot Token Extremes

The most controversial points in Bankless’s 2026 crypto predictions are concerns over quantum attacks and the bubble of robot tokens. Hoffman believes quantum computing is imminent; millions of dormant Bitcoin could be attacked instantly once someone has a sufficiently powerful quantum computer. This is akin to a central bank’s Bitcoin reserves.

Nick Carter believes this will eventually evolve into a quantum race between the US and China, trying to be the first to steal these Bitcoins. The crypto space will have to respond to quantum technology challenges earlier than other sectors of society. Just as the Y2K bug became a hot societal topic, Hoffman expects quantum attacks to do the same. It’s important to note that in 2026, this issue will still be relatively calm, a niche topic among enthusiasts, but these discussions will lay the groundwork for eventual outbreaks.

The prediction about robot tokens is full of irony. Hoffman believes that by 2026, the real-world theme may be robotics, and by year’s end, robots will be a common part of our lives. This will create a narrative-driven hype bubble similar to the AI token craze from November 2024 to January 2025. However, robotics technology is almost entirely limited to private companies or large firms like Tesla; truly valuable investment targets are not in the public crypto markets. Still, speculators will speculate; as robotics become culturally more important, traders will seek low-market-cap, illiquid tokens to trade.

Other notable predictions include: open interest in Polymarket will hit new highs, surpassing the 2024 election levels; stablecoins will be blamed for destabilizing emerging market currencies; on-chain treasury (aka ETF 2.0) assets will double; if the Clarity Act passes, Ethereum and Solana will reach record highs; crypto stocks will outperform tech stocks.

The common theme of these predictions is “institutionalization” and “mainstreaming.” 2026 will no longer be a retail-driven speculative market but a year when institutional capital, regulation, and traditional financial infrastructure fully enter. For native crypto players, this is both an opportunity and a challenge: the opportunity lies in exponential market growth, while the challenge is that the rules of the game are being rewritten.