Gold soared to a historic high of $3,659! Analysts: Gold prices may drive Bitcoin to hit $185,000.

In September 2025, gold rose for four consecutive weeks, reaching a historic high of $3,659 per ounce. Analysts believe that there is a high correlation between the price movement of gold and Bitcoin, and this surge in gold prices may drive Bitcoin (BTC) to challenge $185,000 within the next three months.

The Macro Forces Behind the Continuous Rise of Gold

(Source: Bloomberg)

According to Versan Aljarrah of Black Swan Capitalist, citing data from Crescat Capital, the amount of gold held by foreign central banks has surpassed U.S. Treasury bonds for the first time since 1996, indicating that global funds are accelerating into the precious metals market.

EndGame Macro points out that gold prices have surpassed the inflation-adjusted historical high of 1980, ending a 45-year wait. Contributing factors include:

1. The pressure of public debt in the United States is increasing.

2. Doubts about the Federal Reserve's policies and the credibility of the US dollar

3. Geopolitical tensions escalate

4. Central banks in emerging markets set record gold purchase volumes

Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates, also warned that the global debt burden could trigger stagflation, and the expectation of a weaker dollar will further enhance the appeal of gold.

The Price 'Lag Effect' of Gold and Bitcoin

(Source: Bloomberg)

Bitcoin analyst Joe Consorti pointed out that gold prices usually lead BTC by about 100 days, due to gold's high liquidity and wider distribution.

Another study from Tephra Digital shows that the correlation between Bitcoin and the global M2 money supply lags by about 102 days, while the lag time for gold is about 200 days.

This means that the continued rise of gold is likely to transmit to the Bitcoin market in the fourth quarter of this year.

Potential target price for Bitcoin: 167,000 to 185,000 USD

(Source: Tephra Digital)

Tephra Digital predicts that if the current correlation between gold and Bitcoin continues, the target price range for Bitcoin at the end of 2025 will fall between $167,000 and $185,000.

Consorti also believes that the Federal Reserve's first maintenance rate cut next week will become a catalyst for the BTC pump, and the market in the fourth quarter is “worth looking forward to.”

Market Divergence: Will funds flow into Bitcoin or precious metals?

Despite the majority of analysts being bullish on BTC, some investors believe that funds may prioritize flowing into traditional safe-haven assets such as gold and silver.

Silver price recently broke through 41 dollars, reaching a new high since 2012, sparking discussions in the market about the capital absorption effect of precious metals.

Economist Peter Schiff pointed out that the value of Bitcoin relative to gold has dropped about 16% from its peak in 2021, which may indicate that investors' preference for precious metals is rising.

Conclusion

The historic breakthrough of gold not only reflects the global decline in confidence in the monetary system, but may also bring delayed upward momentum for Bitcoin. If the correlation model holds, it is not a fantasy for BTC to hit 185,000 USD by the end of this year. However, whether funds will shift from precious metals to crypto assets still depends on the interplay of macroeconomics and market sentiment.