According to Gate’s market data, the crypto market is generally under pressure today, with Bitcoin briefly falling below $118,000, Ethereum losing the $3,800 mark, and Solana dropping to $187 after failing to hold above $200. Data shows that the total liquidation amount in the past 24 hours exceeded $450 million, and panic sentiment continues to spread. Analysts suggest that three core factors may have driven this pullback.
US Institutional Demand Shows Signs of Fatigue
On-chain data releases a warning signal: The Coinbase premium index has turned negative for the first time in two months, indicating a significant cooling in the buying willingness of US investors. This index tracks the price difference of Bitcoin between Coinbase and other exchanges and is a key indicator for observing the sentiment of US institutions and retail investors.
At the same time, the inflow of Bitcoin to exchanges surged—over 30,000 BTC recently transferred to trading platforms, reaching a monthly peak. This concentrated inflow typically indicates an increase in short-term selling pressure. The demand for buying in key markets such as South Korea has concurrently weakened, further diminishing upward momentum.
Dual Pressure from Federal Reserve Policies and White House Report
Today (July 30) marks a critical turning point for the market, as two major events overlap to trigger uncertainty:
Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision: Although 97.3% of traders expect the rate to remain in the 4.25%-4.50% range, Powell’s tone of speech is highly anticipated. If hawkish signals are released, it may suppress risk asset preferences; any dovish statements suggesting a rate cut in September could stimulate a rebound.
White House Encryption Policy Report Release: According to official confirmation, this report, which has been in preparation for six months, will be made public today. The content involves the management framework of the Bitcoin reserves held by the U.S. government and the regulatory direction for stablecoins. Historical data shows that similar policy announcements have previously led to fluctuations in BTC exceeding 20% within 24 hours.
Ethereum Fall Triggers Chain Liquidation
Ethereum has recently experienced particularly intense fluctuations. On July 26, its price plummeted 7% from a high of $3,844, briefly touching $3,550, triggering a total of $177 million in ETH-related position liquidations across the network. The main reason for this fall is:
Decentralized lending platform Aave The ETH borrowing rate has soared to 6.5%, causing mainstream arbitrage strategies to fail;
The Ethereum network has seen 644,000 ETH (approximately $2.34 billion) queued for unstaking, creating expectations of short-term selling pressure;
Whales precisely targeted high-leverage bulls in the $3,600-$3,700 range, leading to a spread of panic selling.
Key Data Overview (July 30)
| assets | Price changes | Key indicators |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin (BTC) | -1.04% | Support level: $118,000; Resistance level: $120,000 |
| Ethereum (ETH) | -1.62% | The liquidation amount exceeded $177 million in a single day (7/26) |
| Solana (SOL) | fell below $200 | A loss of 1.4 million addresses has been added (within 48 hours) |
Institutional Divergence: Selling and Bottom Fishing Coexist
Despite the prevailing panic in the market, the actions of whales and institutions show a polarization:
Long-term holders (LTH) accelerate selling: The LTH activity indicator for Solana has reached a monthly high, indicating that "diamond hands" are loosening their chips;
Institutional positioning on dips: BlackRock’s spot ETF increased its holdings by 27,000 ETH (approximately 100 million USD) in a single day during the ETH fall, accumulating over 2.5 billion USD in the past six days. Several listed companies hold a total of over 740,000 ETH, betting on long-term value.
Technical Warning of Downside Risk
Bitcoin: The 4-hour level has fallen below the lower Bollinger Band. If the support at 118,000 fails, it may drop to 115,000 or even 112,000.
Ethereum: $3,570-$3,600 is the line of life and death; breaking this level may trigger a 10% fall.
Market Sentiment: The crypto fear and greed index has fallen from "greed", and the long liquidation ratio in the derivatives market has reached 82%, reflecting the leverage bubble being squeezed out.
Conclusion: Policy Implementation May Become a Turning Point Catalyst
Today’s correction in the crypto market is an inevitable reaction to the macro pressure encountered during the regulatory vacuum period. With the Federal Reserve’s decision and the White House report being released, the market may face a directional choice. If the policies send positive signals (such as rising expectations for interest rate cuts and clarity on Bitcoin reserve strategies), the key resistance level of $120,000 could become the starting point for a bullish counterattack; conversely, a deep correction may continue. Investors should pay attention to Powell’s speech and the full policy report after 22:00 (UTC+8) today, and be wary of the risk of sudden spikes in volatility.
