Daily Market Analysis — BTC

BTC's current position has not fundamentally changed compared to the past 10 days of trading range. This narrow fluctuation at the end of a prolonged sideways movement can be analyzed and tracked using technical methods to predict the next trend, but it requires significant effort—like using a sledgehammer to crack a nut, which is not worth it.
For the market, you can watch more and act less, but you cannot ignore it. Traders who do not study the bear market trend often miss the arrival of the bull market.
From the perspective of daily and higher time frame structures, the overall trend over the past two months has been in a bearish trend, with the second downward sideways movement on the bearish side, which sets the tone for analyzing all current movements.
As for recent local movements, the candlestick pattern shows a "one yang with two stars" vibe, but the MA30 has played a suppressive role during the session, and it is also in a state of oscillation, so certainty is not high. More information needs to be analyzed on smaller time frames.
Even if there is a sudden rise driven by positive news, the high point will only reach around the control line at 75180, and will not directly change the downward trend. The strategy remains to wait for a high sell-off after reaching the peak and a low buy-in after retesting the MA30, without directly betting on an upward move at this level.
From 4H to 12H medium-term trend, the "tower bottom" pattern was previously mentioned, and a modest 1% gain was achieved through an aggressive single mode, with a warning to take profit. The structure is still present but not strong.
After completing support near the "tower bottom" neckline, further support below should be combined with internal structure, and the upper boundary of the sideways bottom area should be used for support.
From the 1H and lower levels, four days ago, Trader Tong indicated that the price above 69222 would show divergence. This idea was realized yesterday, with a top divergence on the 15-minute chart followed by a rally to 68256. Essentially, this is a continuation of last week's divergence segment, so previous articles advised taking profit rather than protecting capital.
Currently, all levels have returned to a mixed bullish and bearish structure, with a local fluctuation radius of less than 1%. Watch more and act less; consider enlarging the volatility before making decisions.
Summary: The bearish trend tone on daily and higher levels remains unchanged. The "tower bottom" structure on 4H to 12H is temporarily formed but not strong below 1H. Therefore, the daily level is tentatively regarded as a second wave peak of a rebound "M-like top" neckline, mainly to prevent a false breakout leading to a downward reversal. In case of a slight decline, monitor the 4H "tower bottom" support for quick in-and-out trading (see chart for details).
Aggressive support levels: 67860-67430 (monitor for quick in-and-out), second support: 64775-63720 (short-term trading, monitor for quick in-and-out, avoid rapid drops).
Short-term resistance: 71674-73330, divergence resistance: 75180-77380.
Major levels have an effective period ranging from a few weeks to half a year, uncertain when they will arrive, but once they do, trading can be considered. Save this as a reference, not for intraday trading!
First support: 60414-58760 (fast in-and-out at 1:2 ratio),
Second support: 57300-54660 (rapid decline with 1:2 rebound),
The 49530-39410 zone is the exhaustion area of the third wave of decline, where the bear trend is exhausted. #BTC