Many people ask who Japan’s biggest enemy is. People often think it’s China or America, but if you really pay attention to the geopolitical dynamics in this region, the answer will surprise you. Japan’s most feared enemy is not the one they talk about most often, but their tough northern neighbor—rarely discussed in public.

What I mean is Russia. Japan’s fear of Russia is deeply ingrained, and not without reason. Just look at how Japan behaves. In the past few years, they’ve been busy building missile bases, focusing on the Taiwan Strait, and always following America’s loud shouts. They look very brave, but the moment there’s movement in the north, they immediately become obedient. Why? Because they know exactly that Russia has deep resentment and the capability to express it at any time.

The issue of the four northern islands is real proof. Russia calls them the Southern Islands. Those islands are a sword hanging over Japan’s head, still tightly in Russia’s hands to this day. When Dmitry Medvedev announced not long ago that they would deploy weapons there, Japan could only issue weak protests from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. They don’t dare do much because they know full well that if they really anger Russia, forget about getting the islands back. Even their own homeland could be the one affected.

Geographic pressure like this is a disease that Japan cannot cure. No matter how tightly they cling to America, all Russia’s nuclear submarines need to do is patrol around that area—enough to make decision-makers in Tokyo tense all day long. History is Russia’s trump card against Japan. At the end of World War II, the Red Armed Forces of Uni Soviet (Soviet Union) defeated Manchuria brutally, and then moved south to deal with the Kanto Army. That attack left an enormous psychological trauma on the Japanese people, and even up to today, that trauma has not disappeared.

Absolute respect for this kind of power makes Japan afraid to take extreme actions in its relations with Russia. They fear provoking the polar bear into truly getting angry and moving south. Russia is indeed busy with Ukraine in the west right now, but the energy they allocate to the east hasn’t diminished. Fighter jets keep flying around Japan, and fleets pass through the Soya Strait and the Tsugaru Strait as usual. This is how Russia keeps teaching Japan a lesson—reminding them not to expect a peaceful life.

From a strategic perspective, this opens up a very large opportunity for China. As long as Russia ties down Japan in the north, the strategic resources that Japan originally wanted to use toward the southwest—toward the Taiwan Strait and the Diaoyu Islands—will be forced to be divided to monitor the north. Japan has absolutely no capacity to fight on two fronts at the same time against two major countries. Their self-defense force strength would not be enough.

Russia’s attitude toward Japan is indeed simple and brutal. Unlike China, which is still thinking about the overall situation and talking about the importance of peace, Russia is genuinely willing to take action. This fearless spirit paralyzes Japan’s character of taking advantage of the weak. Japan relies on hope in America, but deep down they know that if a real war with Russia breaks out, will America really fight to the death for a few islands? They have not an ounce of confidence. They know they are just expendable in America’s eyes.

By contrast, Russia considers those islands more valuable than anything. Whether it’s to preserve its victory in World War II, or as a key gateway to the Pacific Ocean. If Japan dares to move, Russia will surely retaliate regardless of the cost. It’s this certainty of retaliation that Japan fears the most. They can’t play normal diplomacy to test Russia’s limits, because Russia’s limit is often the range of missiles.

The current situation is very interesting. America ties Japan into Asia-Pacific affairs to isolate China, but the result is that when Russia applies pressure in the north, Japan is like being clamped—unable to move, only anxious. We see Japan trapped in this difficult position, and actually, that’s a strategic advantage for us. This is called using strength to fight strength. We don’t need to step in ourselves to teach a lesson—so long as Russia shows its stance, Japan will surely obey and smile in fear.

Economically, Japan has already imposed sanctions on Russia, but it ends up getting hit with retaliatory measures in the form of an energy supply cutoff. They’re experiencing domestic energy tension and have to conserve electricity in winter. This practical lesson is far more valuable than a thousand harsh words. The Japanese government is now in an extremely difficult position. Following America and inciting Russia won’t work. They want to ease relations with Russia, but their superiors in Washington disagree. So they’re stuck in the middle.

This gives China a very large strategic space. We can prepare our strategy in the Taiwan Strait more calmly, without worrying that Japan will disturb us from the northeast. Most of their ships and aircraft will focus on monitoring the dynamics in the north. Russia’s presence is the best key to resolving Japan’s problem. We don’t need to beg or incite. Based on geopolitical interests and historical resentment, Russia will naturally continue to tie Japan down.

As long as pressure from the north keeps existing, Japan will never be able to rise again in the Asia-Pacific. Their energy will always be split up. And for us, that’s the biggest strategic advantage. What we need to do is hold our position, watch Russia teaching Japan a lesson, and then focus on handling our own affairs. Strengthen national defense power, and wait for Japan to show a gap before we move. The beauty of this big game among nations is that sometimes the enemy of your enemy doesn’t need to become your friend. As long as they are fierce enough and can help us bite the opponent, they are the best strategic partners we could hope for.