How Investors May Respond To Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) Wider 2025 Losses, Buybacks and Shifting Earnings Expectations

Simply Wall St

Mon, February 23, 2026 at 3:08 PM GMT+9 3 min read

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Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. recently reported fourth-quarter 2025 sales of US$4,313 million with a net loss of US$243 million, and full-year 2025 sales of US$18.61 billion with a net loss of US$1.48 billion, while also completing a US$124.22 million share repurchase of 7,507,249 shares under its April 2024 buyback plan.

Alongside these weaker results and larger annual losses, Cleveland-Cliffs continues to attract significant market attention, with high short interest and participation in the BMO Global Metals, Mining & Critical Minerals Conference highlighting ongoing debate about its outlook.

We’ll now examine how Cleveland-Cliffs’ wider full-year losses and sharply revised earnings expectations affect the earlier investment narrative around tariffs and demand.

We’ve uncovered the 15 dividend fortresses yielding 5%+ that don’t just survive market storms, but thrive in them.

Cleveland-Cliffs Investment Narrative Recap

To own Cleveland-Cliffs today, you have to believe that U.S. protectionist steel policy, reshoring and its integrated footprint can eventually support a return to profitability despite current losses. The latest US$1.48 billion full-year loss and sharply revised earnings estimates keep the near term earnings recovery as the key catalyst, while balance sheet pressure from ongoing losses and debt remains the biggest risk. These results materially increase the focus on how quickly Cliffs can close that gap.

The most relevant recent development is the full-year 2025 earnings release, which showed sales slipping to US$18.61 billion and annual losses widening to US$1.48 billion, even as net losses narrowed in Q4 versus the prior year. For a thesis built on cost improvement, deleveraging and tariff-supported pricing, that widening annual loss puts more emphasis on future execution and cash generation, especially with high short interest signaling that many market participants are skeptical.

Yet investors should be aware that if rising capital demands on aging assets keep squeezing margins just as optimization benefits level off, the room for error on this story…

Read the full narrative on Cleveland-Cliffs (it’s free!)

Cleveland-Cliffs’ narrative projects $22.5 billion revenue and $590.0 million earnings by 2028.

Uncover how Cleveland-Cliffs’ forecasts yield a $13.41 fair value, a 26% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

CLF 1-Year Stock Price Chart

Some of the lowest ranked analysts take a far more pessimistic view, even before this earnings miss, assuming only about 4.9% annual revenue growth and roughly US$661 million in 2028 earnings, so if you are concerned about steel recycling pressures and rising asset costs it is worth comparing that bear case to your own expectations.

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Explore 5 other fair value estimates on Cleveland-Cliffs - why the stock might be worth over 3x more than the current price!

Decide For Yourself

Disagree with existing narratives? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so go with your instincts.

A great starting point for your Cleveland-Cliffs research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

Our free Cleveland-Cliffs research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Cleveland-Cliffs' overall financial health at a glance.

No Opportunity In Cleveland-Cliffs?

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_ This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned._

Companies discussed in this article include CLF.

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