#加密生态动态追踪 The Bank of Japan confirmed a 25 basis point rate hike on December 19, but the three major crashes of $BTC are not solely due to this. Looking back at history makes it clear—March 2024 saw a 27% drop, July a 30% drop, and January 2025 a 31% drop. It seems like rate hikes are the mastermind behind these crashes, but in reality, each one is triggered by multiple bearish factors converging. Last week, market participants already sensed the risk, and $BTC reacted with a 7% decline in advance, but the underlying logic is far more complex than it appears on the surface. The crash in January? A double impact from Trump’s inauguration and tariff expectations. July? Yen arbitrage trading faced a wave of liquidations, forcing large funds to exit. Going further back to March, $BTC hit a new all-time high and then experienced a correction, compounded by escalating Middle East tensions. While rate hikes by central banks do exert pressure, focusing solely on this logic can easily lead to market traps. The current market situation is like this—single perspectives often miss the bigger picture, with both bulls and bears waiting for the right moment to buy the dip or chase the fall, risking getting caught in traps. $ETH and $XRP are also fluctuating amid this turbulence, and the key is to identify where the true driving forces lie.