【HashChain News | Macro Flash】

US "Temporary Release" of Iranian Oil for 30 Days, Trump Mentions Orderly End to War: Stabilizing Oil Prices or US Debt?

According to the US Department of Treasury, the United States approved a limited authorization for 30 days, allowing Iranian crude oil and petroleum products already in transit to complete delivery and sales, expected to release approximately 140 million barrels of supply to the global market. From a macro perspective, this looks more like an emergency hedging operation against oil prices and inflation.

1. Risk Control
This authorization has obvious limitations:
• Limited to already-loaded oil
• Time window of only 30 days
• Does not involve new exports or long-term policy adjustments

This means the US has not changed its sanctions framework against Iran, but is temporarily releasing inventory to stabilize market expectations amid escalating Middle East tensions.

2. Core Logic: Oil Price → Inflation → Interest Rate → US Debt
The true main line of current global macro is not the Middle East itself, but the following chain:
Oil price increase → Inflation rebound → Federal Reserve unable to cut rates → US debt interest rates remain elevated → Fiscal pressure intensifies

In other words:
👉 What the US really needs to stabilize is not the Middle East, but the inflation and interest rate path
If oil prices spike above $100 due to geopolitical conflict, it will directly disrupt the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting pace, further exacerbating the already elevated US debt interest burden.

3. Why Act Now?
Recent Middle East risks:
• Red Sea shipping disruptions
• Potential threats to the Strait of Hormuz
• Risk of Iran-Israel conflict spillover

Against this backdrop, the US chose to release supply preemptively to suppress oil price expectations, rather than respond passively after the fact.
This is a typical "expectations management."

4. Market Impact
Short term:
Oil price upside pressured (bearish for crude)
Inflation expectations eased (bullish for risk assets)
Crypto market sentiment slightly positive

Medium-term key variables:
• If conflict remains manageable → Risk assets continue rebound
• If energy facilities attacked → Oil prices soar → Macro liquidity tightens
• If Strait of Hormuz blocked → Global liquidity shock (systemic risk)

5. HashChain News View
This is a typical US macroeconomic control measure.
In the current cycle:
👉 Oil price is the Federal Reserve's "shadow interest rate"
👉 And interest rate is the lifeline of the US debt system

The US allowing Iranian oil short-term market entry is essentially buying time for itself.
This forced policy is to avoid premature stress on the financial system.
What the US is releasing is not Iranian oil, but a "liquidity valve" for hedging inflation.