Here's an interesting phenomenon—before last year's policy shift, the daily average trading volume of a certain major Eastern country's stock market was just over 500 billion. After the shift? It shot straight up to 2 trillion, increasing several times over. Even now, when the market is lukewarm, daily trading volume remains stable at around 1.5 trillion, which is three times the previous level. What does this indicate? It's not that the market lacks money; it's that the money is waiting on the sidelines.
What's even more noteworthy is what's coming next: in Q1 next year, there’s a high probability we’ll see a policy-driven interest rate cut, right when a massive amount of three-year term deposits are set to mature. Think about it—people who were counting on earning interest will find that rolling over their deposits yields pitifully low returns. Will that money really just sit there?
The most likely outcome is that it’ll flow into the stock market in search of opportunities. By Q2, this kind of “big migration of deposits” will accelerate—even more household funds will be reallocated, and the stock market will essentially be hooked up to a fresh stream of capital. The improvement in liquidity could be much stronger than expected. For the crypto market, the improved liquidity in traditional finance is also a bullish signal—after all, when risk appetite rises, all kinds of assets stand to benefit.
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ser_ngmi
· 10h ago
The deposit migration wave is coming, and it might really explode in Q1 next year.
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retroactive_airdrop
· 10h ago
Damn, this logic is pretty impressive. The big shift in deposits is indeed easy to overlook. If things really play out like this in Q1 next year, I'll have to reassess my positions.
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TokenVelocity
· 10h ago
Money is really just playing hide-and-seek, waiting to find a good place.
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NotFinancialAdviser
· 10h ago
The money is waiting and seeing, that's spot on. The logic behind moving deposits is solid; it all depends on whether Q1 can really trigger this wave of action.
Here's an interesting phenomenon—before last year's policy shift, the daily average trading volume of a certain major Eastern country's stock market was just over 500 billion. After the shift? It shot straight up to 2 trillion, increasing several times over. Even now, when the market is lukewarm, daily trading volume remains stable at around 1.5 trillion, which is three times the previous level. What does this indicate? It's not that the market lacks money; it's that the money is waiting on the sidelines.
What's even more noteworthy is what's coming next: in Q1 next year, there’s a high probability we’ll see a policy-driven interest rate cut, right when a massive amount of three-year term deposits are set to mature. Think about it—people who were counting on earning interest will find that rolling over their deposits yields pitifully low returns. Will that money really just sit there?
The most likely outcome is that it’ll flow into the stock market in search of opportunities. By Q2, this kind of “big migration of deposits” will accelerate—even more household funds will be reallocated, and the stock market will essentially be hooked up to a fresh stream of capital. The improvement in liquidity could be much stronger than expected. For the crypto market, the improved liquidity in traditional finance is also a bullish signal—after all, when risk appetite rises, all kinds of assets stand to benefit.