Have you noticed a phenomenon:

$BTC has recently started to decouple significantly from US stocks,
and is no longer moving in sync with global M2 growth.

This article tells you the reasons why, as well as how to position yourself going forward.

First, the rise in US stocks is no longer a liquidity-driven bull market, but an AI-led independent rally.

The core driver of US stocks this year isn't monetary easing, but the explosion of the AI industry. Massive funds have flowed into Nvidia, Microsoft, AI chips, and data center sectors. The gains in the S&P 500 are almost entirely contributed by tech giants. Therefore, the US stock market is experiencing an AI-driven bull market, not one led by broad liquidity, so BTC naturally isn't benefiting and is starting to decouple.

Second, the relationship between M2 and asset prices is weakening.

The slowdown in global M2 growth hasn't truly flowed into the crypto market. Where has the money gone? Some has entered US AI stocks, some has flowed into Treasury money market funds, and some has gone into short-term arbitrage. So it's perfectly reasonable that BTC hasn't kept pace with M2.

Third, Japan's rate hikes are changing the global capital structure.

Years of ultra-low interest rates made the yen the world's biggest arbitrage funding source. Now that Japan has started raising rates, capital is no longer willing to borrow yen to buy high-risk assets. The unwinding of yen carry trades is tightening global liquidity, with high-volatility assets bearing the brunt—Bitcoin is naturally under selling pressure.

Fourth, market expectations for Bitcoin's four-year cycle are now affecting its price action in reverse.

Many funds believe the next halving will usher in a bear market earlier, so they're choosing to sell early and lock in profits ahead of time, further reinforcing the decoupling of BTC from traditional risk assets.

In other words: the AI-driven rally, lack of M2 inflow into crypto, Japan's rate hikes draining liquidity, and the market front-running the four-year cycle are together causing Bitcoin to decouple from US stocks and global liquidity in the second half of this year.

So, what should crypto traders do to make money next?

There are three key points.

First, don't judge the market with the old framework. BTC has shifted from being a liquidity asset to one driven by macro + structural factors. The main line going forward isn't a "broad liquidity bull," but "where the money is flowing, who is seeing new inflows, and who is seeing outflows." Getting the right direction is more important than getting the overall market right.

Second, focus on two types of assets:
One is sectors with real, sustained inflows, such as AI-related chains, computing power, data, and decentralized infrastructure.
The other is ultra-oversold assets on the edge of policy and liquidity headwinds—only position after clear bottoming signals appear, instead of blindly bottom fishing.

Third, manage your timing well. Global liquidity is tightening, high-volatility assets will be repeatedly shaken out, so don't bet on a single move—trade ranges, trade waves, trade events. If you get the direction right, position sizing and timing are the keys to making money.

In summary:
Don't stubbornly stick to old logic. Trade along new capital flows, seize structural opportunities, and patiently wait for the big cycle reversal with certainty.

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@Theo_Network @zama