Latest data from Polymarket shows that the probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in December has surged to 94%, with over $260 million in bets placed on this outcome. Market sentiment is running high, but such a widespread consensus could actually be a dangerous signal.

When a bullish factor becomes common knowledge, the price usually reflects it in advance. Institutions and big players who positioned themselves early are now most eagerly awaiting the moment when expectations are realized—the official rate cut announcement day, which will likely be their window to offload positions in large volumes. Jumping in at that time could make you the last one holding the bag.

How should retail investors respond? Here are three ideas for your reference:

First, don’t get swept up by emotions. The more the entire internet is calling for a rally, the more you need to stay clear-headed. Chasing after assets that have already been heavily hyped on rate cut expectations carries huge risks.

Second, watch actual price action, not just the news. Focus on whether BTC and ETH can break above previous highs with strong volume. If the move up is just a reaction to news and prices quickly fall back, be cautious. A real breakout needs to be accompanied by volume, indicating that real money is flowing in.

Third, scale in gradually—don’t go all in. You can test the waters now with a small position, but make sure to set stop-losses. Save most of your capital for two scenarios: either after an emotional pullback once the “good news is realized,” or after confirmation that funds continue to flow in post-rate cut.

There’s never a shortage of opportunities in the market, but patience and discipline are what’s really lacking. Understanding the situation and managing your positions is much more important than blindly chasing gains.