#数字货币市场洞察 , to be honest, last night’s BTC drop had little to do with the PCE data.

Just look at the timing—you’ll see that when the US stock market opened, $BTC and Nvidia plunged almost simultaneously. This looked more like following tech stocks rather than being hit by macro data.

As for the PCE itself? Both the core and headline monthly and yearly rates were basically within expectations, with the core annual rate even a bit lower. Some people say the annual rate rose month-on-month, but that’s due to the year-over-year comparison—last year’s base was just low.

More importantly—this is old data from September. Back then, interest rates were still at a high of 4.25%-4.5%, and the rate cut won’t arrive until the 16th or 17th, so there’s barely any impact on prices that month. In a high interest rate environment, prices are naturally hard to rise.

What really matters are the numbers for October and November. Will inflation bounce back after the rate cut? That’s what the Fed cares about most.

So here’s the key: On the night of December 10, first watch the October CPI, then a few hours later, the FOMC meeting will decide whether to cut rates in December (though it’s very likely), plus the dot plot; then on the 18th, watch the November CPI.

These two time windows will really test market expectations. Last night’s PCE? At most, it was just background noise.