#数字货币市场洞察 Is the thirty-year era of zero interest rates coming to an end? The policy shift of the Bank of Japan is becoming a hidden shockwave in global financial markets. This is not a routine central bank operation, but a historic turning point that could rewrite the logic of asset pricing.

Driving this transformation are three intertwined main threads. First, inflation data continues to break out of the comfort zone—core CPI has stayed above 2% for eight consecutive months, and the shadow of deflation that has plagued Japan for decades is dissipating. Second, the depreciation of the yen has made policymakers uneasy. A 45% drop in just two years has pushed import companies to the brink with cost pressures, making exchange rate stability a rigid demand. Third, labor negotiations are reshaping wage expectations, with unions demanding a 5% wage increase and companies increasingly willing to follow suit, forming a typical wage-inflation spiral.

But what truly makes the market nervous is the timing. While a major central bank is in a rate-cutting cycle, Japan is moving in the opposite direction. This monetary policy mismatch directly threatens the massive $4–5 trillion yen carry trade. Once funds flow back to Japan, global bond, forex, and equity markets will all face liquidity contraction shocks.

In the short term, certain government bonds may face selling pressure, the US dollar index may see a pulse-like surge, and the yen could stage a long-awaited strong rebound. As for gold, it may initially be dragged down by real interest rate fluctuations, but over a longer time frame, the three major supports—long-term US dollar depreciation expectations, a downward shift in the real interest rate center, and persistent geopolitical risks—remain intact.

This is not just simple market volatility, but a deep restructuring of global capital flows. Turbulence is inevitable, but if you cut through the noise, opportunities are often hidden in the folds of structural changes. $ETH $ZEC $LUNC