#ETH走势分析 Last weekend I ran into a girl who trades futures contracts at a gathering, brought by a friend.

She heard I was doing pretty well in the crypto space, so she came over with her glass of wine to complain—she’d thrown in two million, and now what’s left in her account isn’t even enough to be called pocket change.

Half joking, I teased her: “If you’d spent two hundred grand to learn from me earlier, things wouldn’t be this bad now, would they?”

She gave an awkward laugh: “But I didn’t know you back then.”

I didn’t say it out loud, but I understood perfectly. Even if she’d known me, she probably wouldn’t have believed me—people never admit there’s a pitfall ahead until they’ve fallen flat on their faces.

“Be honest, sis, is there really anyone in this game who can make stable profits?” She leaned in and lowered her voice. “I always feel like someone’s watching me—whenever I buy, it drops; whenever I sell, it rises. It's spooky!”

I burst out laughing: “Of course there are people making money, but that feeling you have... every newbie gets it.”

“Think about it,” I paused, “the market runs 24/7, constantly going up and down—what does any of that have to do with you or me? You make ten million, it doesn’t stop for you; you get liquidated and lose everything, it still keeps moving just the same.” I looked into her eyes. “That’s the coldest part of the crypto market.”

She got anxious: “Then how do I turn things around?”

“This game is hard, and what makes it hard is that it’s actually too simple.” I leaned back in my chair. “So simple that once you buy in, all you can do is wait. Wait, and wait, until you start questioning your whole life. Even those Ivy League grads, the ones way smarter than average, still lose everything—not because they’re not smart enough, but because they can’t handle the uncertainty. They always think if they check more indicators or learn a few more strategies, they’ll have the market under control.” I shook my head. “But in this damn place, the only thing you can control is how much you’re willing to lose.”

She was still confused: “So what exactly should I do?”

I was a bit helpless: “Spot the trend, set your stop loss, and enter the market.”

“That’s it?” Her eyes widened.

“That’s it.” I shot back. “How many times have you actually tried it? Just the word ‘trend’ alone, I could talk to you about it until sunrise. There’s a world of difference between hearing it every day and truly understanding it. It’s like teaching someone to drive—for a beginner, using the clutch, shifting gears, checking the mirrors, all seem impossibly hard; but for someone who can drive, it’s just hand-foot coordination.”

Most of the time, that’s how it is. We go over mountains and rivers searching for answers, only to open the pouch and find the answer was in our hands all along.

The starting point is the finish line; it’s just that most people have to take a detour before they’ll believe it.