Recently, I’ve noticed a phenomenon: although the panic over short-term BTC sell-offs by Strategy has subsided and the company’s approach has clearly shifted to a more conservative one—prioritizing debt repayments to investors and making interest payments on time—there are some subtle signals revealed by the prediction data on Polymarket.

18% of people are betting on a coin sale next summer, while another 35% are wagering on a sale by the end of the year. But what’s more crucial? 71% of predictions are pointing to one thing: that by March 31, MSCI is very likely to kick Strategy out of two major stock indices.

This is probably the root of management’s anxiety. Although their public statements remain tough and community supporters are still rallying, the concerns on the funding side are already written all over their faces—the data doesn’t lie.