#数字货币市场洞察 In this cycle, the way the altcoin market operates has completely changed.

If you’re still waiting for some small token to suddenly take off, you might be disappointed. The current situation is more like a zero-sum game—the amount of capital is fixed, but the chips are increasingly dispersed. As a result, the top players get the meat, while the rest don’t even get the soup.

The data is clear: the top 10% of high-quality assets take in 90% of the capital inflow, while the rest of the projects are basically left to wither away in neglected corners. This isn’t by chance—it’s the inevitable result of a maturing market.

Looking back at the past few years, how many projects could raise money and pump the price just based on a concept? Those days did exist. But things are different now. After going through so many rounds of being fleeced, participants have learned to look at the product, the data, and the team background. Hollow narratives no longer work, and projects without real-world applications simply can’t support their valuations.

What’s even worse is the valuation bubble. During the bull market, VCs drove prices up like crazy, with many tokens reaching multi-billion-dollar valuations before even hitting exchanges. Ordinary investors walked in only to find themselves buying at the top. This structural issue has made breaking below launch price the norm, and naturally, confidence has collapsed.

Project teams have also figured it out: as soon as there’s a small pump, someone dumps. Rather than spending effort on market making, it’s easier to just lay low and save costs. The market thus falls into a vicious cycle—no one wants to support the price, and investors are even more reluctant to enter.

In this environment, strategies must change. The long-term hold and wait-for-multiples approach no longer works. Now, it’s all about getting in and out quickly, seizing short-term explosive opportunities, and getting out fast—hesitate, and you might not even break even.

As for when the next opportunity will come? It might not be until liquidity truly loosens up, but by then, competition will only be fiercer. At that point, it’s not about luck, but about judging market timing and execution.

Simply put, the altcoin market is no longer an era of blindly going all in—it’s a fast-paced game that requires precise judgment. If you can’t adapt to the new rules, you’ll be eliminated.