Recently, I've been keeping an eye on a new development: the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates on June 19.

What’s the probability the market is pricing in? 74%. That's no longer just a "rumor"—it deserves to be taken seriously.

If you look back at trends over the past few years, you'll notice a pattern: whenever Japan adjusts its yen policy, global capital flows shift accordingly. Some call it a "weather vane," others say it's the "trigger for a chain reaction."

Why does even a small move in the yen make everyone so nervous?

Simply put, the yen's relationship with the US dollar is unique. Its monetary policy is rarely made "independently"; more often, it’s a move aligned with global capital flows. This time is no different—some analysts believe this round of rate hikes may have tacit approval from the US.

What’s even subtler: while the US might be about to cut rates, Japan is tightening liquidity. This operation seems contradictory, but the strategic logic behind it is worth pondering.

No matter how you interpret it, for those of us actually trading in the market, one thing must be clear:
Risk management always comes first.

At times like this, emotions are easily amplified, and the market can change in an instant. What seems like a bottom-fishing opportunity might also be the start of an accelerated decline.

If you're planning to enter the market, or if you already have positions, remember this:
Set your stop-loss, and don’t get emotional with the market.

A single unbearable drawdown costs more than just money—it can also erode your mindset and confidence to stay in the market.

Protecting your principal is far more important than picking the right direction. Opportunities are always there, but if your account goes to zero, you’re out of the game. Stay steady if you want to go far.