#比特币对比代币化黄金 Yesterday a friend asked me if it was a good idea to chase ETH longs. My advice was to wait until the PCE data came out.

As it turned out, the data was indeed bullish, and market sentiment surged—everyone was calling for a rally. But I became even more cautious—these are often the most dangerous moments.

If you look at where ETH was trading at the time, it was right in the 3000-3200 range. There were over $900 million in long positions piled up below that range, which is an alarming amount. The more one-sidedly bullish the market was, the more I felt it was a trap.

So my view was clear: if you really want to trade, do the opposite—going short would probably be safer. The subsequent price action proved this idea right—most of those who chased the pump ended up getting trapped.

To be honest, you can’t ignore news, but you have to understand the game behind the headlines. Good data doesn’t necessarily mean prices will go up—the key is to watch the distribution of positions and capital flows. When everyone is crowded on one side, that’s often when the real opportunity is on the other.

When it comes to trading, timing is more important than news. If you blindly follow the herd, you’re probably just handing money to the market. $BTC