#美联储货币政策 Seeing the probability of a Fed rate cut in December soar, I can't help but recall my experience of being lured into the market a few years ago. Back then, bullish news was everywhere and everyone was shouting, "The bull market is coming." But what happened? I ended up buying at the top and lost almost everything. This time, I won't fall for it again.

The Fed's moves always have far-reaching consequences. A 25 basis point rate cut may not sound like much, but it can have a huge impact on the market. The question is, is this expectation really reliable? I don't think so.

Over the past few years, we've seen too many so-called "expert predictions" end up being proven wrong. Now, seeing such a high probability of a rate cut actually makes me more cautious. Is there a chance that some big players are manipulating expectations behind the scenes, setting up for another round of "harvesting"?

My advice is: don't be fooled by surface-level data. No matter how the market fluctuates, always maintain independent thinking and control your position size and risk. Remember, in this market, never put all your eggs in one basket and never blindly believe in so-called "guaranteed" gains. Protecting your principal is the key to long-term survival.