#美SEC促进加密资产创新监管框架 Last night's pullback left a lot of people confused—wasn't the expectation for rate cuts heating up? So why did the market drop instead?

The answer actually lies in the global flow of funds. The rate cut narrative has already been mostly priced in, especially the December cut. What's really moving the market now is what's happening with the yen.

The bond market's reaction is pretty straightforward: 1-year short-term yields didn't drop, they actually went up. Normally, short-term bonds are more sensitive when rate cut expectations strengthen, but now they're moving in the opposite direction, which means most of the benefits from those expectations have already been absorbed. More notably, 10-year and 30-year long-term yields are rising sharply—if investors were purely bullish on rate cuts, funds should be flowing into US Treasuries, not pulling out.

There are two forces at play here. One is last night's PCE data—even though September inflation didn't climb further, it remains sticky, and the market is worried a rebound in inflation could trigger long-term bond sell-offs. The other, more crucial factor: expectations of a rate hike in Japan are causing carry trades to unwind faster. With the dollar expected to cut rates and the yen expected to hike, the interest rate differential is narrowing, prompting funds to flow back into Japanese assets. The simultaneous spike in US and Japanese bond yields is a direct result of this logic.

Looking at US stocks, the three major indexes are up on the surface, and the VIX is down to around 15, making things look calm, but the Russell 2000 is still falling. Small caps aren't buying in, which suggests short-term risk appetite isn't actually that optimistic.

For $BTC, the core issue has shifted from “rate cut bullishness” to “liquidity redistribution triggered by yen rate hike expectations.” Keep a close eye on the Asian session when the market opens next week—don't get caught off guard by institutional sell-offs like last Monday. The market logic is changing; if you just go with your gut, you'll get rekt. Figuring out where the money is flowing is what really matters.