2026 will be a year of weak stock returns, according to Bank of America forecasts.

Source: CritpoTendencia Original Title: 2026 will be a year of weak gains for stocks, according to BofA Original Link: https://criptotendencia.com/2025/11/28/el-2026-sera-un-ano-de-ganancias-debiles-para-las-acciones-segun-el-bofa-2/ According to analysts at Bank of America (BofA), 2026 will not be particularly favorable for US stock market assets. The institution’s experts expect stock returns to be especially limited, a forecast that aligns with the delicate economic situation currently faced by the US.

According to a report cited by CNBC, the team led by Savita Subramanian is predicting lackluster performance. In this regard, the benchmark S&P 500 index is expected to reach no more than 7,100 points by the end of 2026 (an increase of about 5%). This is an extremely low increase, considering the index is currently around 6,812 points.

The expert explained that the 15% growth expected in 2025 is due to a combination of several factors, such as multiple expansion and corporate profit growth. However, 2026 will be driven only by earnings growth, estimated at about 14%, but this will not be enough to offset a 10% contraction in the S&P 500’s price-earnings multiple.

Meanwhile, in a pessimistic scenario, the report notes that the S&P 500 could fall back to 5,500 points. This would represent a nearly 20% drop from current levels, which would mean a technical bear market. In summary, even in the best-case scenario, Bank of America believes investors should prepare for an environment of modest returns.

Stocks prepare for a complex year

It’s important to emphasize that a 20% drop in the index would only happen in the context of a recession. Currently, there are few signs of an imminent collapse. In fact, if the Federal Reserve continues its trend of lowering interest rates, 2026 could mark the start of a monetary easing cycle.

This approach creates expectations of potentially solid returns, which at least on the surface seems to contradict Bank of America’s warning. In an optimistic scenario, according to Subramanian, the S&P 500 could even exceed 8,500 points, implying a 25% increase from current levels.

While analysts believe this scenario is unlikely, it is consistent with the nearly 20% return the index has shown in 2023 and 2024. It’s worth noting that over the past decade, the S&P 500 has averaged an annual return of 12%. Therefore, 2026 appears to be a year full of uncertainty, with the Fed’s monetary policy being the decisive variable.

In the cryptocurrency market, the outlook may be even more volatile. General weakness in financial markets would increase pressure on risk assets, including Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. In this context, capital could quickly exit, leading to a pronounced bear market in line with Bitcoin’s historical four-year price cycle.

Nevertheless, the worst-case scenario is not currently considered likely by most observers.