Recently, scrolling through the square, all I see are people lamenting the miserable state of the altcoin market.

Many blame it on being "short of money" or "liquidity drying up," but that's actually the most superficial understanding.

What's the real truth? The underlying logic of the market has already been restructured.

Remember the era when you could pump a coin just by making up a story? That's long dead. Players are much smarter now, and old tricks just don't work anymore.

The root causes for why altcoins can't take off boil down to two main issues: an innovation wasteland and a valuation bubble.

Look at the small token projects in recent years—nine out of ten are playing concept games. No product, no application, no users—just relying on a PPT and a whitepaper as their facade. Maybe that could fool investors before, but now? No chance.

Even worse, the valuation system has collapsed. During the bull market, VCs hyped projects to crazy valuations—tens of billions—even before launch. Retail investors buy in at the top, and this playbook just can't last.

Now, capital flows are increasingly resembling the US stock market—the head effect is scarily obvious. High-quality projects occupy 10% of the market but absorb 90% of the funds. The rest of the altcoins? Just gathering dust in the corner. Project teams see through this too; if they try to pump, someone dumps immediately, so they just give up. The result is instant price drops after launch, and confidence collapses completely.

So if you want to make money now, you need a different approach.

Forget about those long-term value investing dreams. The survival rule now is three words: short, fast, ruthless. Seize breakout moments, take profits, and get out—never overstay. Hesitate even a little, and you won't even get the scraps.

When the next big cycle comes, opportunities will definitely appear, but the competition will only get fiercer. Then, it'll be your judgment and execution speed that matter, not luck.

In short: the altcoin market has evolved from an "easy win era" into a gladiator arena where it's "licking blood off the knife's edge." Only those who adapt to the new rules will survive, and those who thrive will be rare as unicorns.