Heading into 2026, U.S. rates face an unusual setup — disinflation has hit a wall, growth patterns look choppy, and cracks are starting to show in the labor market. After treasuries had a solid run in 2025, the question now is whether the Fed can actually deliver the aggressive rate cuts that traders are pricing in. The math might not add up. When inflation refuses to cool further and employment signals turn mixed, central banks tend to move cautiously. Markets may be getting ahead of themselves here, betting on relief that the data doesn't yet support.