Recently, I heard some news—the G7 and the EU are secretly planning something big: they’re preparing to completely ban shipping services for Russian oil exports. If this really happens, it could stir up quite a storm in the global energy market.

Let’s break down the background. Previously, Western countries imposed a "price cap" on Russian oil, but Russia wasn't naive—they assembled a "shadow fleet" of around 350 ships to bypass restrictions and sell oil to buyers like China and India. Now, this new ban aims to cut off that route entirely. Keep in mind, one-third of Russian oil exports rely on Western tankers and shipping services, especially fleets from Greece and Malta in the EU. Once the ban takes effect, this trade will come to a halt.

A rise in oil prices is a certainty. Russian seaborne crude exports account for 14% of the global market, which is no small figure. If a supply-demand gap opens up, Brent crude surging to $120 a barrel is entirely possible. Plus, shipping costs will soar due to rerouting and skyrocketing insurance premiums—all these costs will be passed on to end users, leading to another wave of inflationary pressure.

The most obvious impact will be on consumer countries. India will be under significant pressure—it gets nearly 40% of its crude imports from Russia and is highly dependent on maritime routes. With the ban, import costs will skyrocket. China, while having pipelines to cushion the blow, won’t escape the overall rise in oil prices.

Things won’t be easy for Russia, either. Energy exports account for 45% of their fiscal revenue, and if maritime routes are blocked, they may be forced to further expand their "shadow fleet." The issue is, the safety hazards and compliance risks of those aging vessels will only increase, and in the long term, this isn’t a sustainable solution.

When geopolitics shift, energy markets panic, and assets fluctuate—the impact of this round of maneuvering is likely to be far more profound than it appears on the surface.