There’s a key data release tonight at 11 PM.

First, what if the CPI explodes and shoots above 2.9%? Inflation is still stubbornly high, and the Fed cutting rates? Forget it. The high interest rate sword keeps hanging overhead, corporate borrowing costs will skyrocket, and earnings expectations will naturally drop. Where will the money go in this scenario? Bonds and money market instruments—the safe havens. High-spending tech and growth stocks in the stock market could take a serious hit.

On the flip side, what if the number comes in below 2.9%? The market’s mood will change instantly. With inflation pressure easing and rate cut expectations heating up, a shot of liquidity could supercharge risk assets. Corporate financing costs would drop, and there’d be more room for valuations to climb. Tech stocks might be the first to take off, and crypto assets like BTC could also see a strong rally.

Two completely opposite scenarios, with totally different trends. Tonight’s figure will basically determine which direction the market takes in the near future.